Tensions Rise between Hizbollah and Lebanon over Disarmament

Still reeling from its disastrous war with Israel, Hizbollah now faces more pressure than ever to surrender its weapons. The group’s disarmament is mandated under a ceasefire deal reached in November 2024, but it has interpreted this requirement as applying only in southern Lebanon, and the state has not forced the issue elsewhere. This week, however, the Lebanese cabinet approved plans to establish a state monopoly over arms by year’s end and endorsed the “main objectives” of a U.S.-backed roadmap for implementing the faltering truce.

Lebanon’s leaders reached these decisions under immense strain. U.S. officials have demanded that the government commit publicly to a clear disarmament process. Meanwhile, Israel says it will only stop attacking Lebanon and occupying parts of Lebanese territory once Beirut brings Hizbollah to heel. To Israel’s frustration, Hizbollah (which is both a Shiite political party and a militia) has long been an exception to the Lebanese state’s monopoly on the use of force. Now, the brutal war has depleted much of Hizbollah’s former military might, which many observers considered greater than the national army’s.

The U.S. State Department praised the cabinet resolution as “an important step toward Lebanese sovereignty” and Hizbollah’s domestic rivals commended the government’s “historic” decision. Hizbollah, however, stated it would treat the decision “as if it doesn’t exist”. On Wednesday, the foreign minister of Iran (Hizbollah’s key patron) voiced support for the group’s position.

For now, Hizbollah looks set to express its opposition without going much further. In the past, Hizbollah and Amal (its key Shiite ally) ordered all Shiite ministers to resign after adverse political decisions and then claimed that the cabinet had lost constitutional legitimacy. This week, the duo’s ministers withdrew from both cabinet meetings in which the resolution was discussed, but only as a gesture of protest, not resignation. Several pro-Hizbollah demonstrations denounced the cabinet decisions this week, but they remained non-violent. This relatively cautious approach likely reflects Hizbollah’s weakened position due to the latest war.

Yet Hizbollah might adopt a more confrontational stance if disarmament gathers pace. On Tuesday, the government tasked the Lebanese army with completing an implementation plan by the end of August. If Hizbollah feels it could imminently lose its weapons under that proposal, it might try to derail the process. It could do so by triggering a political crisis, with all five Shiite ministers resigning. Even the cabinet’s lone independent Shiite member eventually walked out of Thursday’s meeting, explaining that he did not want “sole responsibility” for such crucial decisions.

If Hizbollah continues to stonewall, then the Lebanese army will face rising pressure to confront the group forcefully – a scenario that the country’s leaders desperately want to avoid. Yet a stalled disarmament process may encourage Israel to take matters even further into its own hands, by expanding its military assaults on alleged Hizbollah targets. Caught in this unenviable dilemma, the Lebanese government needs support from the U.S. to temper Israel’s impatience, while it sets about trying to ease Hizbollah’s hostility toward disarmament.