Our monthly conflict tracker highlights three conflict risks and one resolution opportunity in February:

• In Iran, the government met nationwide protests with an exceptionally violent crackdown that likely killed thousands. The U.S. has threatened a direct military intervention, which raises the spectre of a new war that could engulf the region unless the sides find a diplomatic off-ramp.

• A dramatic confrontation between Syria’s government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces killed dozens on both sides and redrew the country’s political map. The two parties on 30 January struck a new deal, which offers a chance at lasting peace.

• Politically-motivated killings put Bangladesh on edge ahead of the 12 February elections. There is a risk of further violence targeting those participating in the poll, as well as reprisals against supporters of the ousted Awami League or the Hindu minority, while a disputed outcome could spiral into a political crisis.

• With the mandate of Haiti’s transitional government set to expire on 7 February and scant progress toward a new political arrangement, a vacuum could emerge ripe for gangs to exploit.

CrisisWatch identified seven deteriorated situations in January. Notably:

• Opposition forces made lightning advances in South Sudan, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians as the army announced a major counter-offensive, underscoring the country’s ongoing descent into civil war.

• Following months of escalating tensions between Ethiopia’s state authorities and Tigray region’s political leadership, the Tigray Defence Forces clashed with federal troops and militias from the neighbouring Amhara region, highlighting the risk of a return to war in the country’s north.

• Uganda’s presidential election was marred by a deadly crackdown on opposition supporters, a four-day internet shutdown, and allegations of fraud, leading the opposition to reject President Museveni’s declared re-election.

• Islamic State-affiliated militants in Niger launched an unprecedented, high-profile assault on the international airport and adjacent air force base in the capital Niamey, hitting one of the military regime’s nerve centres.

• In a dramatic military raid widely seen as violating international law, U.S. forces captured Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. U.S. President Donald Trump later proclaimed that Washington would directly oversee the country’s management and assume control over its oil sector.

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in: China-U.S., Cuba, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, New Caledonia (France), Nile Waters, South Africa and Tanzania.