Moldova Votes EU, but Obstacles Clutter Path to Membership

Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has won parliamentary elections with 50.2 per cent of the vote. Though the margin of victory was narrow, putting it just above the threshold for an absolute majority in the legislature, it still marks a big win for the party and its pro-EU integration platform, in what was widely framed as a high-stakes choice for Moldova between European alignment and Russian influence as war rages in neighbouring Ukraine.

The vote gives Sandu’s party a clear mandate to stay the course on accession to the bloc. Without a majority, PAS would have needed a coalition with one or more opposition parties, which could have made the necessary reforms more difficult and perhaps even nudged Moldova in a more Russia-friendly direction.

Even so, the to-do list ahead remains long. Chisinau must keep the pace on reforms needed for EU accession, including strengthening the judiciary and the rule of law, fighting corruption, and gradually aligning Moldova’s economy with the EU single market. 

PAS also faces the challenge of turning its ambition for EU integration into one shared by the whole nation, and not just the platform of a political party. That means winning over the many Moldovans who are undecided over the country’s geopolitical trajectory, and unsure that EU integration will bring stability and prosperity. Their frustrations with high inflation, rising living costs, unemployment and the slow pace of material improvements in their lives have reinforced discontent with the ruling PAS and wariness of ongoing reforms, while part of the population remains more supportive of a non-aligned foreign policy. The EU could do more to quell these doubts by engaging opposition political forces and civil society in discussions on the reforms needed to join the bloc.

Brussels can also help by delivering on its promise of opening accession negotiations with Moldova. The European Council needs unanimity between the 27 member states to do so. But because Moldova’s application is twinned with that of Ukraine (meaning both countries move forward on accession together) it faces a veto from Hungary, which is blocking Ukrainian progress. European Council President António Costa is floating a well-known idea: scrapping unanimity to open accession negotiations and keeping it only for the final stages. This step could enable more rapid progress now and for future EU enlargement. The glitch is that it first requires a unanimous decision.

Moldova’s path forward is further complicated by the unresolved future of the separatist region of Transnistria. Moldovan authorities would like to join the EU by 2030, but first they will need a plan to resolve the Transnistrian conflict and reintegrate the region, which remains dependent on Moscow. With the fraught example of Cyprus making the prospect of bringing only part of Moldova into the EU unappealing in Brussels, a clear road map for Transnistrian reintegration will be critical. PAS victory has confirmed Moldova’s will to join the EU, but a long haul lies ahead.