The Gulf Countries Face a Litmus Test

Six days after Israel’s 9 September attack on Qatar targeting Hamas officials there, 57 nations converged on Doha for a joint Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation Summit, and a separate Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) session, to discuss a coordinated response. While a flurry of diplomacy suggested the delegates felt pressure to move beyond mere rhetoric, they could not decide on a commensurate response, instead including in both outcome documents a “call” (intended as a signal to Israel and the U.S.) for countries to review existing agreements and bilateral relations.

Israel’s strikes, which killed five Hamas members and a Qatari security officer, shattered any lingering sense that the GCC states are beyond the reach of regional tumult. Situated barely more than an hour’s flight from most other Gulf capitals, Qatar has now suffered two attacks in less than three months. In June, following U.S. strikes on Iran’s primary nuclear sites, Iran struck the U.S.’s Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar after a warning to all Gulf states hosting U.S. military forces. Previously, Israel had attacked South Pars (known in Qatar as the “North Field”), which lies in waters shared by Iran and Qatar. Meanwhile, the escalating Israeli-Houthi conflict has reportedly spilled into Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coastal areas. The lesson for GCC states is that they cannot shield themselves from external attack through good relations with the U.S., Iran and even Israel, as once hoped.

Gulf states are especially troubled about what the recent episode suggests about U.S. protection. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to state that Israel “takes full responsibility” for the strike. Yet, U.S. officials offered only tepid criticism, including during Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s subsequent trip to Israel. Media reports suggesting that President Donald Trump had prior knowledge of the attack added to GCC states’ unease, and his assurances that “such an attack will not happen again” rang hollow for them. Long reliant on a U.S. security umbrella, they viewed this as Washington’s third inadequate response in recent years, the first coming after the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia – for which the Houthis claimed responsibility but Riyadh and Washington pinned on Tehran – and the second following the 2022 Houthi attack on the UAE.

The Israeli strike on Doha has become a test of Gulf states’ ability to respond in unison. Even as they seek more robust security guarantees individually, regional media and (behind closed doors) some Gulf officials urge collective action. Yet, what emerged from the Doha meetings lacked any specific plan for responding to the strikes. Beyond the calls “for legal effective measures”, the Summit communiqué upbraided Israel for its actions against the Palestinians, and a separate GCC statement outlined a plan for joint military meetings to enhance collective security. The GCC statement did reaffirm prior pledges that Gulf states see an attack on one as an attack on them all which at least sends a positive signal about unity. But whether words will translate into action remains an open question.