Tense Times in Tripoli

Tensions are rising in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, as pro-government forces seek to consolidate control of the city. There is currently no fighting, but a military escalation might be around the corner and would most likely take place in densely populated neighbourhoods. 

These dynamics are playing out on a complicated political stage. Tripoli is the seat of Libya’s internationally recognised government. A rival government (not internationally recognised) sits in Benghazi. In 2021, after several years of fighting, the rivals settled into a fragile peace. Meantime, Tripoli has had to contend with armed groups formed after the 2011 fall of Muammar al-Qadhafi. These groups nominally answer to the state, but run their own fiefdoms. Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba, who came to power in 2021, has tried to bring these groups to heel. This power struggle creates a constant risk of violence. 

The present face-off pits Dabaiba’s military against the so-called Special Deterrence Force (Al-Rada), which is affiliated with the interior ministry, and has controlled Tripoli’s Meitiga airport and detention centre since 2011. Until now, post-Qadhafi governments have had a modus vivendi with the group, which enjoys strong popular support, especially in the Suq al-Juma neighbourhood where it is based. But Dabaiba seems intent on ending Al-Rada’s prerogatives, and has mobilised forces in seeming anticipation of a confrontation. For its part, Al-Rada opposes the prime minister and shows no sign of capitulating. This turf war has been underway since May 2025, when heavy fighting between Al-Rada and pro-Dabaiba units engulfed the capital for one night before subsiding. The worry now is that pro-government units might attack Al-Rada, trigger an urban war between two heavily armed factions, and sow havoc in the capital. 

On the surface, Dabaiba’s mobilisation seems to be about taking control of the capital’s security. But politics is also a key motive. The prime minister came to power in 2021 through UN-mediated negotiations and was supposed to rule for only one year. But disagreements over a national ballot have allowed him to stay in power. Recently, the UN has thrown its weight behind the appointment of a new executive, including in a mediation plan unveiled on 21 August 2025. That plan calls for the formation of a new unity government as a first step to unify Libya’s divided institutions. But Dabaiba opposes efforts that would see a successor appointed.

Against this backdrop, many people in Tripoli believe that Dabaiba’s moves against Al-Rada are part of a broader strategy to undercut any armed group that opposes his bid to remain in power. In the words of a prominent Libyan politician and critic of the premier: “For Dabaiba this is an existential war: If he gets rid of Al-Rada, there will no longer be a force in Tripoli that can force him to step down.” Conversely, if al-Rada holds its ground, Dabaiba could well emerge battered and politically diminished. Either way, if tensions escalate into open fighting, Tripoli residents will be the ones who will suffer the most.