On Our Radar

On Our Radar scans conflicts and crises around the globe every week and features some of the hotspots Crisis Group’s analysts are closely watching. Whether an under-reported trend or a headline-grabbing development, our field experts explain why it matters or what should be done.

23 January 2026

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO M23 rebels withdrew from Uvira, near the Burundian border, over last weekend, ending a tense month in which they controlled the South Kivu town. They had promised to pull out, likely due to U.S. pressure following a December summit in Washington between their main outside backer, the Rwandan president, and his Congolese counterpart. The Congolese army and allied Wazalendo militias re-entered Uvira this week, but in the interim chaos engulfed the town, with widespread looting and abuses against civilians, mainly by the Wazalendo. Of particular concern, says Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff, is the mounting ethnic tension in the area. The M23 insurgents, who portray themselves as defenders of the Tutsi people, took Uvira claiming that the Tutsi-related Banyamulenge living in town needed their protection. Primary responsibility for attacks on Banyamulenge residents lies with the Congolese authorities and their allies, but the rebels appear to have exposed these people to predictable retaliation after retreating. Another M23-aligned armed group, the Twiraneho, is involved in fighting around Uvira, also pointing to a pattern of inter-communal violence.
GUATEMALA President Bernardo Arévalo declared a 30-day state of emergency Monday after inmates had taken more than 45 guards hostage at three prisons two days earlier. After the authorities regained control of one of the facilities, gang members outside jail killed ten policemen in retaliation. The state of emergency limits citizens’ rights and gives state forces special powers such as making arrests without cause. It echoes the iron-fist approaches to public safety pursued by leaders in El Salvador and Ecuador. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Arévalo, who won the 2024 election touting a progressive reform agenda but has since lost popularity, listened to demands from Guatemalans for a decisive response to an uptick in violent crime. If the measure delivers immediate results, it could help the president’s political standing.

UGANDA Tensions simmered this week after the 15 January elections, which saw President Yoweri Museveni win another term with 71.65 per cent of the vote. The leading opposition candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Party (NUP), rejected the result, alleging widespread fraud. He remains in hiding after dodging a police raid – staged for reasons that remain unclear – on his residence. The president’s powerful son, army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, said on social media Tuesday Kyagulanyi would be treated as an “outlaw/rebel” if he did not surrender within 48 hours. (He later deleted this and other inflammatory posts.) Meanwhile, authorities charged more than 100 NUP members with involvement in election day violence. An internet blackout has made details of the incidents difficult to verify. The official death toll is twelve, but both Kyagulanyi and Muhoozi have cited higher figures. The government says ten died when its forces were attacked at an opposition legislator’s home, a version of events sharply contested by others who were present. Crisis Group expert Meron Elias says the opacity of events, along with Muhoozi’s threats, will likely keep the political temperature high following the polarising vote.

16 January 2026

CUBA The bodies of 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the 3 January U.S. raid in Venezuela arrived in Havana Thursday. Cuba is facing considerable uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday urged its government to “make a deal” or face the consequences, vowing that the U.S. would cut the Venezuelan oil supply to the island nation, which is heavily dependent on these deliveries for its energy needs. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Washington appears to be calculating that a deepening economic crisis in Cuba will mobilise the masses to bring about the regime’s collapse. The Cuban regime retains a strong military and solid ties to Russia and China, however, and previously has not hesitated to crush dissent.
GREENLAND Several European NATO members have deployed troops to Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, to beef up infrastructure and carry out joint military exercises after U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly stated that the U.S. intends to acquire the island, by force if necessary. Wednesday’s meeting among the U.S., Greenland and Denmark in Washington failed to resolve “fundamental disagreement” on Greenland’s future, according to the Danish foreign minister. With Europe already buffeted by Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, says Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker, this crisis will have dire implications for the future of NATO and European security writ large if the U.S. does not back down.

SYRIA Thousands demonstrated in the north east Tuesday against government forces’ expulsion of Kurdish fighters from Aleppo. Since the last Kurdish fighters left the city Sunday, fighting shifted eastward, raising the risk of sustained confrontation. In early January, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clashed with the Syrian army in Aleppo as negotiations to integrate Syria’s north east under central government control stalled. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says Damascus cannot take the whole region militarily, but it will likely keep applying pressure on the SDF. The U.S., which supports both sides, has kept a ceiling on escalation thus far and should use its leverage to bring the parties back to the negotiating table.

9 January 2026

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Provisional results show that President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has secured a third term after general elections on 28 December. Two challengers – Anicet-Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra – have called for annulling the vote, alleging fraud, while the main opposition coalition boycotted the ballot, citing an uneven playing field. The disputed poll coincided with renewed violence in the south east. Fighters linked to the Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé (AAKG) – a Zandé self-defence militia – disrupted voting in Bambouti. Clashes then spread, including AAKG attacks on government forces around Zémio in early January. The AAKG was initially aligned with Bangui but later broke with the government after its rapprochement with a Fulani-led armed group that the militia accuses of encroaching on Zandé land. Crisis Group expert Fulbert Ngodji says the AAKG may be digging in to battle the state. Stability during Touadéra’s new term will hinge on promoting intercommunal dialogue in the south east, better integrating militias under army command, and reducing regional isolation through development and security reform.

IRAN The falling value of Iran’s national currency sparked demonstrations that since late December have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest. The government has altered its subsidy policies but done little to dampen wider grievances. At least three dozen people have been killed as state forces crack down on protests that show little sign of slowing down. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the Islamic Republic faces a major dilemma: it is neither willing nor able to adopt reforms that could meet expectations for political, social and economic change and on notice from U.S. President Donald Trump that outside intervention is possible if its repression intensifies.

LEBANON Lebanon said it had passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah, but the country’s fragile ceasefire deal with Israel remains imperilled. On Thursday, the Lebanese army announced that it had brought all weapons under state control in the southern area between the Litani River and the Israeli border. Israel immediately disputed the army’s assertion, saying Hizbollah retains military infrastructure in that region. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Beirut faces dangers ahead in any case. The army must soon move toward disarming Hizbollah north of the Litani, where the group refuses to comply – driving up the risk of internal discord. Yet Lebanese leaders also know that Israel will almost certainly respond to any hold-ups in disarming Hizbollah with severe military escalations, inflicting still more pain on their embattled country.