Understanding JNIM’s Attacks on Towns and Cities in Western Mali

A recent wave of attacks by Jihadist insurgents in western Mali is raising alarm in urban areas. On 1 July, the al-Qaeda-affiliated group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) simultaneously attacked locations in the Western Segou and Kayes regions, including the city of Kayes – an important transit hub for trade with neighbouring Senegal. Militants also targeted Niono and Nioro du Sahel, two mid-sized towns near the Mauritanian border, and four smaller towns, two of which are border posts with Mauritania and Senegal. The following day, JNIM threatened to impose a blockade on Kayes and Nioro, accusing residents of collaborating with government forces. 

Both JNIM and Mali’s armed forces have claimed victory and released conflicting figures about the attacks. JNIM asserts that it killed dozens of soldiers, destroyed over a hundred military vehicles and motorcycles and damaged the Kayes governor’s residence. For its part, the Malian government says its soldiers killed over 80 militants. 

While by any measure Mali’s armed forces repelled the assailants, the attacks were a significant show of force by JNIM. By targeting Kayes, the group took aim at a region that is home to large gold mining operations and that previously was largely insulated from jihadist violence. At the same time, the group showcased its ability to carry out simultaneous attacks in at least seven different locations, some hundreds of kilometres apart, demonstrating its expanding operational reach and sophistication. 

Targeting urban centres also underscored that the group is serious about a strategic shift that has been under way for the better part of a year. In September 2024, JNIM carried out a surprise attack on Bamako’s international airport and a military barracks in the capital city. Two months later, senior JNIM commander Mahmoud Barry declared that the group’s campaign against Sahelian states was entering a new phase focused on urban areas. In the past two months, JNIM has attacked Timbuktu, Douentza, the outskirts of Ségou, and Sikasso. While jihadists have previously pressured urban areas – notably through blockades – the scale and frequency of these recent attacks are much more significant.

Thus far JNIM has not captured any cities, and it is unclear if it plans to do so. Observers believe that right now it is testing the government’s ability to defend urban areas, amplifying a sense of insecurity among residents, and challenging the authorities’ claims that the military has become more effective in restoring national security. JNIM’s recent calls for Malians to mobilise against Bamako and its Russian supporters suggests that the group may be trying to encourage the regime’s collapse from within. 

But for now, even as JNIM’s campaign grows more daring, the balance of power between government forces and militants is little changed. The parties are fighting a war of attrition, with jihadist groups expanding in rural areas, and government forces and their Russian allies controlling urban centres. Although JNIM’s turn toward urban targets could herald a new turn in the conflict, it is unclear whether this will translate into decisive gains for the jihadists.