On Our Radar

AFGHANISTAN–IRAN  More than 4 million Afghans face deportation after Iran ordered all undocumented Afghan migrants to leave the country by this coming Sunday. If completed, it would be the largest deportation in the region in living memory. Following its 23 June ceasefire with Israel, Iran has intensified the repatriation of Afghan migrants, citing economic strain and national security concerns, with daily departures surging to a record high of 30,000. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 256,000 migrants entered Afghanistan from Iran in June. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says Afghanistan is overwhelmed by the volume of returnees from Iran as well as Pakistan, which has also been carrying out deportations. Meanwhile, the UN refugee agency, which is responsible for assisting the new arrivals, is operating under severe funding constraints. Any additional increase in deportations risks exacerbating Afghanistan‘s already severe humanitarian and economic crisis.

MEXICO  Fighting between Los Chapitos and La Mayiza, the two most powerful factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, reached a peak in June, leaving over 210 people murdered and dozens more missing across Sinaloa state. The government has deployed thousands of troops to the state since the two factions began battling last September. Since then, more than 1,630 people have been killed and at least 1,660 reported missing. The surge in violence comes amid reports that Los Chapitos have forged a new alliance with their former rival, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Crisis Group expert David Mora says such a pact would turn the Jalisco Cartel into Mexico’s most powerful organised crime group, potentially exacerbating the challenges for a government already struggling to contain insecurity in Sinaloa.

UKRAINE–U.S.  The Trump administration this week announced that it had frozen part of the military aid committed to Kyiv under the Biden administration, including critical air defence batteries and precision-guided munitions. Washington cited concerns about dwindling U.S. weapons stockpiles. The move comes as Russia intensifies aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities and presses on with its summer offensive. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says withholding arms deliveries, particularly air defence systems, could lead to more civilian casualties from Russian strikes, given Ukraine’s already limited ammunition supplies. The decision also risks emboldening Russia to escalate its offensive further.

BRAZIL  Two senior military officers confronted each other in court Tuesday, during a historic trial of several top brass, former President Jair Bolsonaro and others on charges of plotting a coup in 2022. Bolsonaro lost that year’s election to President Luiz Ignace Lula da Silva, after which thousands of his supporters stormed federal buildings in an effort to overturn the outcome. One of the officers, a colonel who has signed a plea bargain with prosecutors, alleges that the other, a general who was Bolsonaro’s defence minister and 2022 running mate, participated in a meeting about how to stop Lula from taking office. The general denies it. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says it is remarkable that senior officers are facing trial in a civilian court. The Brazilian officer corps has in effect been exempt from civilian justice since the country made the transition from military dictatorship to democracy in 1985.  

INDIA–PAKISTAN In a breakthrough, India’s National Investigative Agency announced this week it had identified the three men who gunned down 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir on 22 April as Pakistani nationals belonging to the Pakistan-based jihadist group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, after arresting two Kashmiri men for allegedly sheltering the militants. Two days after the attack, authorities had published sketches of the three alleged perpetrators, presenting them at the time as two Pakistani nationals and a local Kashmiri. But despite having detained over 2,000 people and demolished the homes of nine suspected Kashmiri militants, until now they had been unable to get a clear lead substantiating New Delhi’s claim that Lashkar-e-Tayyaba was behind the massacre. In early May, India launched missiles at what it branded “terrorist infrastructure” deep in Pakistan, leading to a brief but intense conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi says this week’s news may bolster its case for those strikes, as well as help bring the killers to justice.

UNITED NATIONS  The UN released its annual “Children in Armed Conflict” report last week, finding an alarming increase in “grave violations against children” in 2024. The number of violations climbed for the third consecutive year, the report says, to 41,370, the highest figure the UN has ever recorded. Places with particularly high levels of violence harming children included the Gaza Strip, as well as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Nigeria and Somalia. Crisis Group experts Cristal Downing and Floor Keuleers say the report offers a compelling picture of how war can not only take children’s lives but also wreck the lives of children who survive it. For example, children may be maimed during attacks on hospitals and clinics, but they also lose access to health care. Similarly, children are deprived of education when schools are destroyed.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Kigali and Kinshasa initialled a draft peace agreement Wednesday, following the latest round of U.S.-mediated talks, with a formal signing scheduled for 27 June. The draft agreement comes after months of heavy fighting in the eastern DR Congo’s North Kivu region, during which Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured substantial territory, including the provincial capital, Goma, in January. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says the announcement indicates breakthroughs on sticking points between the two sides, possibly concerning the withdrawal of Rwandan and M23 rebel forces from the eastern DRC. For any agreement to hold, outside powers must continue to exert real pressure to ensure Kigali’s compliance, while Kinshasa must reinforce its authority in the east to prevent future rebel incursions.

GAZA  Palestinians continue facing deadly violence at aid distribution sites set up by the U.S.- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). In one incident this week, Israeli troops opened fire on a crowd, killing 59 people and injuring 200. Nearly 400 Palestinians have been killed since the GHF rolled out its operations in late May, according to health authorities. The UN and other agencies have criticised the aid scheme as insufficient, unsafe and in breach of humanitarian principles. As the world’s attention shifts to the Israel-Iran war, Crisis Group analyst Amjad Iraqi says states must not allow Israel to continue wielding food as a weapon of war. Instead, they should back establishing a new UN blueprint for managing aid in Gaza.

NIGERIA  Gunmen killed over 100 people in the central state of Benue over the weekend, marking one of the deadliest assaults in the country this year. The incident comes amid persistent attacks on villages, in a region known for conflict between farmers and herders, which has claimed thousands of lives over the past two years. President Bola Tinubu ordered security agencies to track down the perpetrators after visiting the state on Wednesday. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says the latest attacks have intensified scrutiny of the government’s pledge to restore security. Crackdowns alone are unlikely to end the violence unless they are paired with long-term measures, including sustained herder-farmer dialogue and comprehensive livestock sector reform.

CAMEROON  Government forces barred traffic in parts of Douala city Sunday, preventing opposition party leader Maurice Kamto from leaving his residence to meet with party members. A tense but peaceful encounter between police and opposition activists followed. Kamto, who has entered the presidential election scheduled for October, had just returned from France, where he held a rally challenging the ruling party. Crisis Group expert Arrey E. Ntui says a greater crackdown on dissent may lie ahead in the run-up to the poll, amid calls upon the 92-year-old incumbent, Paul Biya, not to run for an eighth term.

SUDAN  The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced Wednesday it had captured a strategic portion of the tri-border zone with Egypt and Libya, as the Sudanese army announced its withdrawal from the area. The previous day, the army accused the Libyan National Army (LNA), the force led by Khalifa Haftar that backs one of Libya’s two rival governments, of attacking Sudanese border posts. The LNA has previously provided logistical support to the RSF – both are backed by the United Arab Emirates – but Tuesday was the first time the army has alleged it is directly involved in Sudan’s civil war. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says the LNA’s involvement in the tri-border area risks drawing out the war further, as countries such as Egypt and Türkiye may step up their support for the Sudanese army in response.

YEMEN  An Israeli warship fired missiles at the Houthi-held port of Hodeida Tuesday, marking the first time Israel has hit Yemen by sea rather than by air during its post-October 2023 exchanges of fire with the Yemeni rebel movement. The Houthis have repeatedly attacked Red Sea shipping, as well as Israel, purportedly in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians in Gaza. The Israeli military threatened to impose a naval and aerial blockade in an attempt to deter the Houthis from using the port for military purposes. Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi says strikes on Hodeida, the main entry point for food and other aid for millions of Yemenis, risk further entrenching one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

BANGLADESH  Prosecutors opened their case against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at the country’s International Crimes Tribunal Sunday, charging her with crimes against humanity in trying to suppress the July 2024 popular uprising that forced her from office. They say they have audio recordings of her saying she had ordered government troops to shoot protesters. A UN report has accused her of doing the same. Crisis Group expert Tom Kean says Mohammad Yunus, the country’s interim leader, is under pressure to speed up trials of Hasina and others allegedly responsible for abuses during the unrest, with some Bangladeshis demanding that verdicts come down before elections for a new government. Some, despite the apparent weight of evidence, may thus perceive that the trials are political retribution. India, where Hasina fled after losing power, is likely to cite persecution as a reason for rejecting Dhaka’s requests for her extradition.

U.S.–SYRIA  Thomas Barrack, the U.S. Syria envoy and ambassador to Türkiye, told a Turkish TV channel Monday that the U.S. military is closing most of its bases in Syria, consolidating the remaining garrison at a single site. Some 1,500 U.S. troops are in the country, fighting ISIS alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Crisis Group experts Michael Wahid Hanna and Nanar Hawach say the decision signals the Trump administration’s intent to pull U.S. personnel out of Syria, though a full withdrawal is some way off, as Washington wants to keep a hand in the counter-ISIS campaign for the time being. Meanwhile, the move may have the effect of encouraging the SDF, which has carved out an autonomous zone in Syria’s north east, to integrate with the central authorities in Damascus. It also accommodates Ankara, which eyes the SDF warily even while pursuing peace with the group’s PKK allies. Together with announcements about lifting sanctions, it indicates a major shift in U.S. Syria policy.

WESTERN SAHARA  The UK said Sunday it would back Morocco’s proposal for autonomy for the disputed territory of Western Sahara, over which Rabat claims sovereignty. It joins France, Spain and the U.S. in endorsing the Moroccan plan, which Rabat advanced in 2007. Previously, Morocco had nominally accepted the idea of a UN-sponsored referendum on self-determination for the territory. The pro-independence Polisario Front has long insisted that such a plebiscite be held. Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says Morocco has scored another win in its decades-long diplomatic campaign to promote autonomy as the best way to settle the Western Sahara conflict. It is notable, however, that London refrained from recognising Moroccan sovereignty over the territory, highlighting instead the need for all parties to agree to a solution. In so doing, the UK may give a boost to UN envoy Staffan de Mistura’s efforts to relaunch negotiations in the coming months.

GAZA  As Israel’s military intensified its ground offensive, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a U.S.-Israeli-backed entity, began rolling out its aid distribution on Tuesday. The UN and other aid organisations have criticised the initiative, describing it as inadequate for addressing the widespread hunger in Gaza, dehumanising to Palestinians and heavily politicised. The first distribution quickly descended into chaos, as thousands of Palestinians overwhelmed an aid site near Rafah, reportedly resulting in dozens of injuries and at least one death. Crisis Group expert Max Rodenbeck says international leaders must urgently act to rein in Israel’s latest campaign, which has caused 4,000 deaths and uses aid distribution to support military aims. A ceasefire, coupled with a large-scale aid operation through established UN-backed organisations, remains the most effective way to alleviate suffering and stave off famine in Gaza.

SUDAN  The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) resumed drone strikes this week, targeting military and civilian infrastructure in Port Sudan on the coast and Kosti in White Nile state. The renewed attacks come as Sudan’s army pushes deeper into West and South Kordofan, following its full capture of Khartoum earlier in May. Meanwhile, aid agencies warn of a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, with a nationwide cholera outbreak resulting in at least 70 deaths this week in Khartoum alone. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says the RSF’s drone campaign has expanded the conflict to previously stable regions, deepening regional tensions and exacerbating Sudan’s health crisis. Outside powers need to apply more pressure on the warring parties and their backers to prevent the conflict from spiralling further out of control.

UKRAINE  Over the weekend, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since the war began, firing over 360 drones and missiles in a single night and causing multiple civilian casualties. The attacks coincided with an exchange of 2,000 prisoners of war under a deal reached in Istanbul on 16 May. Russia has proposed continuing talks there next week. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy warned that around 50,000 Russian troops are massing near the border of Ukraine’s Sumy oblast, raising fears of a new offensive. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the Kremlin’s latest offer of dialogue appears aimed more at keeping the U.S. engaged than at ending the fighting anytime soon. It is likely Russia will seek territorial gains over the summer to strengthen its hand ahead of future negotiations.

GAZA  Israel launched a massive ground offensive Sunday, in a fresh bid to root out Hamas that the army said would involve “the displacement of most” of the starving Palestinian population. Operation Gideon’s Chariots, as Israel dubs it, entails razing many remaining neighbourhoods, concentrating residents in “humanitarian zones” and distributing minimal aid through private contractors. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that ending the war will also involve “carrying out the Trump plan”, referring to the U.S. president’s expressions of support for emptying Gaza of its inhabitants. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says European governments, which have more vocally opposed Israel’s plans in recent days, should pursue swift, concrete action to deter Israel from advancing the operation further.

NIGERIA  A spate of jihadist attacks has displaced thousands in the country’s north east, including some 20,000 residents of Marte, a town in Borno state. Crisis Group expert Rinaldo Depagne says the mass flight from Marte is an apparent setback for the Nigerian military’s counter-insurgency campaign: soldiers had previously cleared the town of militants, allowing the population to return. The army says it has destroyed several jihadist strongholds and killed scores of fighters over the last month. But two groups – Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province – have nonetheless been able to step up raids on military installations and civilian areas.

U.S.–IRAN  The U.S. and Iran commenced a fifth round of negotiations over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in Rome on Friday. It is a critical juncture, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez. Going into the talks, the two sides staked out irreconcilable positions on uranium enrichment, with Washington demanding that Tehran cease this activity and Iranian officials – including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – insisting that it is a right under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. That the parties are debating this fundamental issue will make it difficult for them to address the technical question of how Iran’s nuclear activity can be verifiably restricted and monitored, which is what they must do if the discussions are to progress toward an agreement.

INDIA–PAKISTAN  India and Pakistan reached a ceasefire Saturday after days of the most intense clashes between the two countries in decades. The fighting erupted after militants killed 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists, in Indian-administered Kashmir. India blamed the assault on Pakistan-sponsored groups. India claimed to have killed more than 100 militants in retaliatory strikes. Pakistan reported 51 deaths, including 40 civilians and eleven military personnel. Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi and Samina Ahmed say the truce has averted what could have been a grave escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbours, but deep-rooted tensions remain. Outside powers should help maintain open lines of communication and back-channel diplomacy between New Delhi and Islamabad to stop any future crisis from spiralling out of control.

MALI  Mali’s military government issued a decree Tuesday dissolving all political parties, just days after suspending political activities nationwide. The decision, which officials say is meant to overhaul the country’s fragmented party system, reflects recommendations made during national consultations in April. That conference, largely boycotted by opposition groups, also called for extending military rule by five years. The government’s crackdown on political activity sparked rare protests in the capital, Bamako, in early May. Crisis Group expert Ibrahim Maiga says the decision undermines the principle of pluralism and accelerates the shrinking of civic space. Prospects for a democratic transition appear increasingly uncertain.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  On Friday, Istanbul hosted the first official direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since May 2022. While both sides made modest concessions – including agreeing to face-to-face discussions without preconditions – their stances remain far apart. Prior to the negotiations, Ukraine called for a temporary, unconditional ceasefire and urged its Western friends to increase pressure on Russia, while the Kremlin appears to have pushed for an agreement that would impose neutrality on Ukraine and reduce its military capacity. The talks ended without meaningful progress, though the sides agreed to a major prisoner exchange and left the door open to further negotiations. Moscow also reportedly reiterated ceasefire terms Kyiv considers unacceptable, namely a full Ukrainian withdrawal from territories Russia claims to have annexed in 2022. Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov says how the U.S. positions itself in relation to this latest round of diplomacy will likely determine whether talks continue or quickly reach an impasse.

HAITI  Dozens of protesters marched through the capital Port-au-Prince Sunday calling on government officials to resign over their inability to curb rising gang violence. The demonstrations came two days after the U.S. designated the powerful gangs from the Viv Asanm coalition and the Gran Grif gang as foreign terrorist organisations. Crisis Group experts Diego Da Rin and Brian Finucane say the designations will likely worsen Haiti’s humanitarian crisis. They will hamper the work of aid organisations, many of which must negotiate with gangs to supply basic goods to the population. They may also make it easier for the U.S. to remove from its territory Haitian migrants whom it accuses of belonging to these gangs as it will be able to label them as “terrorists”. But they will do little to restore security in Haiti.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  U.S. efforts to broker a lasting truce in the Russo-Ukrainian war have stalled and fighting, artillery and drone strikes continue, albeit at a somewhat reduced rate since Thursday, when a Russia-announced three-day unilateral ceasefire was due to begin. Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov says that the Kremlin’s failure to respond to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s offer of a mutual 30-day ceasefire paired with its offer to talk directly to Kyiv without preconditions underlines Moscow’s desire to have at least some elements of a deal in place before it agrees to halt hostilities for a protracted period.

YEMEN  U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the U.S. will stop bombing the Houthi rebels in Yemen “effective immediately”, following mediation by Oman. The Houthis, for their part, agreed to halt attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea. Hours earlier, however, Israeli air raids, launched in response to Sunday’s Houthi ballistic missile strike near Tel Aviv, severely damaged the airport in the Yemeni capital Sanaa as well as the vital port of Hodeida, killing at least three people and wounding dozens. The Israeli-Houthi conflict thus seems likely to continue, says Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi, but the U.S.-Houthi ceasefire is a step toward de-escalation in the Red Sea.

GAZA  Gaza’s humanitarian crisis is spiralling as Israel continues its military offensive and total blockade on the entry of aid and commercial goods – the longest such shutdown since the war began in October 2023. Last week, the UN Relief and Works Agency and World Food Programme announced that their food stocks in the enclave had run out completely. Prices for remaining food on the market have skyrocketed. Aid agencies warn that famine is unfolding in almost all of Gaza. Efforts by mediators to restore a ceasefire remain unsuccessful. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the U.S. and others must press Israel to end its overt use of starvation as a weapon of war and to decouple talks with Hamas about releasing the 59 Israeli hostages from the provision of basic sustenance for Gaza’s 2.2 million people.

KASHMIR  India and Pakistan have exchanged small-arms fire along the Line of Control for several consecutive days, following last week’s militant assault in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 civilians dead. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of supporting the militants behind the attack, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday reportedly granting the armed forces discretion to respond as they see fit. On Wednesday, Pakistan’s information minister, Attaullah Tarar, warned that Indian military action could be imminent. Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi says India’s international partners should make clear that any military escalation against Pakistan would carry unnecessary nuclear risks. While New Delhi should move swiftly to investigate the attack, and prosecute those responsible, it should also ease tensions in Kashmir through broader local engagement and confidence-building measures.

NIGERIA  Violence surged across northern Nigeria in April, killing over 320 people. In the north east, a resurgence of raids by Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), resulted in more than 100 deaths. On Monday alone, an ISWAP attack killed 26. Meanwhile, in the north-central zone, attacks on farming villages, which residents blamed on herders, killed over 220 – the highest monthly toll since December 2023. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says President Bola Tinubu’s efforts to improve national security, including by increasing defence spending, have yet to yield the hoped-for results. Persistent personnel and equipment deficits continually undermine military and police efforts. In addition, the delay in advancing livestock sector reform, to help herders switch from nomadism to ranching, continually creates grounds for herder-farmer disputes.

BURKINA FASO  The military government announced Monday it had thwarted a “major plot” to overthrow junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré. Security Minister Mahamadou Sana stated on state television that several soldiers were arrested last week, with others still being sought. The government alleged that the plotters had backing from outside the country, pointing to neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire as the base of operations. Crisis Group expert Mathieu Pellerin says these developments highlight the increasingly tense political situation in Burkina Faso. Discontent with the military leadership could grow as it struggles to contain attacks by Islamist insurgents, which have reached record levels since January.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  The Congolese government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels both released statements Wednesday pledging to halt fighting in the eastern DR Congo and to work toward a permanent truce, following more than a week of talks in Doha, Qatar. The talks were preceded by a Qatar-brokered meeting last month between Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says the announcement is a welcome sign of progress for the Qatar-led initiative, but success will require continued pressure on Kinshasa, as well as Kigali, which backs the M23. Efforts should also be made to better align the Doha process with the African Union-led peace initiative for DR Congo.

YEMEN  Over the past month, the U.S. has significantly escalated its air campaign against the Houthis, targeting a broader range of sites with increased focus on the group’s military infrastructure and leadership. Despite sustained airstrikes, the Houthis have continued their fire at Red Sea shipping, claiming several attacks, including on a U.S. aircraft carrier and its escort vessels. Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi says Washington appears to believe that airstrikes alone will compel the Houthis to back down – a strategy that failed under President Joe Biden and is unlikely to succeed under President Donald Trump. The Red Sea crisis is mainly linked to the war in Gaza and U.S.-Iran tensions, both of which demand more diplomatic efforts.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  The government said at least 52 people were killed in shelling of Goma, capital of the embattled North Kivu province, late last week. Since late 2022, North Kivu has seen fierce combat between the Congolese army and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, who captured Goma in January. There had been a lull in fighting as Qatar tried to get a fresh mediation process going. Kinshasa blamed the M23 for the attack, while the rebels attributed it to the government’s coalition, which includes Rwandan insurgents as well as Congolese militias called Wazalendo. A Wazalendo wing called CMC/FDP claimed to have fired the shells, saying it could help retake Goma with more government assistance. Meanwhile, tensions compelled southern African troops trapped in the city to withdraw hastily overland. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the attack could give the M23 a pretext for relaunching the war, as diplomacy, including the Qatari-led effort, struggles.

ECUADOR  Conservative Daniel Noboa won re-election as president on Sunday, defeating Luisa González, candidate of the left populist movement led by the influential former president Rafael Correa, by a wide margin. Despite initial demands by González for a recount, international observers said the process was smooth, and some in her party have already accepted defeat. Crisis Group expert Elisabeth Malkin says Noboa, an eager ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, is likely to continue hardline policies to fight the crime wave in Ecuador, which now has the highest homicide rate in Latin America. Drug trafficking groups have carved out smuggling routes through the country to ship cocaine via its ports, empowering local gangs who prey on citizens through kidnapping, extortion and other illicit activities. The murder rate fell soon after Noboa began his crackdown a year ago, but it has recently begun to tick up again.

U.S.–IRAN  A second round of talks about the Iranian nuclear program is due to start this coming Saturday in Rome, as questions swirl about whether the Trump administration has changed its negotiating position. Earlier, the administration’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, had indicated that the U.S. would not insist on dismantlement of the program, including the capacity to enrich uranium. This week, however, Witkoff seemed to equivocate on that issue, amid pushback from hawks in Washington. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says it is unclear what the U.S. stance will be when discussions with Iran resume. What is clear from twenty years of diplomacy on this file is that Tehran will not abandon its program entirely, citing its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. If the U.S. demands dismantlement, the incipient talks will likely fizzle.

BRAZIL  Former President Jair Bolsonaro spoke to a rally of thousands in Sao Paulo Sunday, demanding pardons for all those accused of trying to overthrow President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s government in early 2023. The Supreme Court announced in late February that Bolsonaro and 33 others, including several generals, will soon stand trial on charges of attempting a coup. Bolsonaro’s Partido Liberal is trying to pass a law granting amnesty to those who stormed federal buildings after Lula’s inauguration. At the demonstration, Bolsonaro compared himself to U.S. President Donald Trump and far-right French politician Marine Le Pen, saying all three have endured persecution for their political ideas. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says the trial – whatever its outcome – will loom large in Brazilian politics as the 2026 presidential campaign draws near. Authorities have barred Bolsonaro from running until 2030, but he is expected to try anyway. Meanwhile, the trial will likely energise Bolsonaro’s defenders, at a time when Lula’s approval ratings have dropped.

GAZA  UN Secretary-General António Guterres sharply criticised Israel’s actions in Gaza Tuesday, saying “the floodgates of horror have reopened” due to its total blockade of the strip. For over a month, Israel has prevented food, fuel, medicine and other supplies from entering the enclave, vowing to keep doing so until Hamas releases all the hostages still in its hands. Seven UN agencies released a joint statement Monday calling for a renewed ceasefire and highlighting critical breakdowns in food distribution and health care as the blockade continues. Crisis Group expert Richard Gowan says Guterres has consistently been outspoken about the scale of suffering among Gaza’s Palestinians, but so far with little effect on Israeli policy. The UN needs Washington and other powerful capitals to press Israel to let more aid into the strip and restore the truce.

U.S.–IRAN  The U.S. and Iran are due to hold high-level talks about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in Oman this coming Saturday. The two sides have been at odds over this subject since 2018, during President Donald Trump’s first term, when he withdrew the U.S. from the deal struck between Tehran and world powers three years earlier. There are conflicting narratives about the format of the new discussions: Iranian officials insist they will be indirect, while Trump has described them as direct. The meeting will likely reveal gaps between the two sides’ expectations, which may be so large that dialogue stalls. But the mere fact of the talks is important, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, as finding sufficient common ground could help the sides scope out the parameters of more substantive negotiations to be pursued down the road.

GAZA  Israel this week expanded its offensive in Gaza, including ground operations in several cities and creation of a new military corridor between Rafah and Khan Younis. The renewed assault has killed over 1,300 Palestinians since 18 March, exacerbating displacement and hunger amid a month-long total siege. On 30 March, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel plans to take control of the strip in preparation for the Palestinians’ “voluntary migration” elsewhere. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israeli officials’ statements suggest that their objectives go beyond compelling Hamas to hand over the 59 remaining Israeli hostages and entail rendering Gaza uninhabitable and threatening it with depopulation. Outside powers should urgently apply pressure to restore a ceasefire.

HAITI  Thousands took to the streets of Port-au-Prince on Wednesday to protest spiralling gang violence and the government’s failure to protect civilians. Armed gangs now reportedly control 85 per cent of the capital and are expanding their reach into other parts of the country. On Monday, gang attacks in the city of Mirebalais enabled more than 500 inmates to escape from jail, while a government-leased helicopter used to transport security forces was disabled near the city the same day. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says gangs are likely to take full control of Port-au-Prince if decisive action is not taken soon. Haiti’s foreign partners must provide an immediate increase in security assistance that corresponds to the gravity of the situation. Otherwise, gangs could overthrow the transitional government and install their own authorities.

LEBANON  Two rockets were launched from Lebanon toward Israel last Friday. Hizbollah denied involvement, as it had done after a similar volley six days earlier. Nevertheless, last Friday Israel carried out airstrikes on targets in southern Lebanon, which killed several people. It also hit an alleged Hizbollah drone storage facility in Beirut, its first attack on the Lebanese capital since the November ceasefire. On Tuesday, Israel again struck Beirut, killing two Hizbollah members and two civilians. Under the ceasefire’s terms, the Lebanese state must hold accountable anyone firing at Israel from Lebanon, says Crisis Group expert David Wood. But it needs sufficient time to identify the culprits. Israel’s swift retaliations do not help; instead, they risk precipitating a slide back into full-scale conflict.

EGYPT–GAZA  Cairo reportedly floated a proposal this week for restoring the ceasefire in Gaza, as the Palestinian death toll from Israel’s renewed offensive in the strip topped 800. According to the plan, which Egyptian security sources say Hamas and the U.S. have accepted, hostilities would again pause, and Hamas would release five of the remaining 59 hostages each week. At the end of the second week, Israel would begin withdrawing its forces from all of Gaza, in accordance with the terms of the original January truce agreement’s second phase. Neither Israel nor Hamas has directly commented on the scheme. Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says Egypt is anxious to get the ceasefire back in place. The longer the war goes on, Egyptian officials fear, the more likely Israel is to try pushing Palestinians out of Gaza into Sinai and the more Suez Canal revenue Egypt will lose due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Red Sea shipping.

SUDAN  The Sudanese army announced Wednesday it had retaken central Khartoum, including the presidential palace and the airport, from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says it is a major turning point in the country’s bloody civil war. The RSF had held much of the capital since early after the conflict began in mid-April 2023. Recapturing Khartoum greatly bolsters the army’s claim to be the legitimate national authority and deals the RSF a heavy blow. Peace is not yet at hand, however. The RSF still controls swathes of territory in Darfur and Kordofan, where conflict rages. Fighting is also spilling into neighbouring Chad and South Sudan, heightening tensions in the region. Diplomats should urgently push both the Sudanese army and the RSF to engage in negotiations, putting a peaceful resolution over continued military escalation.

UNITED STATES  Congressional Democrats called upon top Trump administration officials to resign this week, following publication of an article showing the officials discussing the 15 March U.S. bombing of Houthi-linked targets in Yemen in a Signal group chat, outside the government’s formal channels. A journalist was included in the chat, apparently in error. Crisis Group expert Brian Finucane says the incident suggests a further breakdown of U.S. decision-making processes about matters of war and peace. The U.S. Constitution gives Congress, not the executive branch, the power to declare war, but legislators have never authorised military action against the Houthis. Nor has the administration publicly explained the legal basis for strikes in this instance, when the substantive debate seems to have occurred in an informal executive branch forum.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi met with Rwandan President Paul Kagame Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, with the two leaders agreeing in their final statement on the need for the M23 rebel group to halt its offensive in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. It was their first tête-à-tête in over a year. On Wednesday, however, the M23 moved to seize the strategic town of Walikale, opening the way to Kisangani, one of the country’s largest cities. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says it is as yet unclear whether the M23, now in control of more territory than ever in the mineral-rich east, will stop its onslaught, which has already killed thousands.

GAZA  Israel broke a two-month ceasefire Tuesday, launching devastating airstrikes across Gaza that have so far killed at least 600 Palestinians. The Israeli army also moved Wednesday to retake the Netzarim corridor that bisects the strip. The fresh offensive comes after Hamas rejected Israeli and U.S. efforts to prolong the ceasefire’s first phase, insisting that talks advance to deal with a full Israeli withdrawal and Gaza’s reconstruction, as the parties had agreed in January. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israeli officials are signalling an even more aggressive campaign to dismantle Gaza’s surviving governing infrastructure and maybe to annex parts of the territory, expelling the Palestinians living there. Returning to the original ceasefire parameters is paramount.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  Russia and Ukraine traded more fire this week, with intense Russian drone strikes on two hospitals and other civilian buildings just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a Tuesday telephone call with U.S. President Donald Trump. On Wednesday, Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, later expressing optimism that a full ceasefire could be near. Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker says the increased interest in ceasefire talks may signal a step forward, but given how little sign Moscow has given that it is ready to offer concessions, there is no guarantee that other steps toward a lasting ceasefire will follow.

BANGLADESH  The World Food Programme announced this week it would chop food aid for almost one million Rohingya refugees by more than half to just $6 per person per month, starting on 1 April. The reason is a severe funding shortfall, caused in part by the Trump administration’s suspension of most U.S. foreign assistance. The U.S. has been the largest donor to the Rohingya crisis response, contributing more than half of the almost $600 million that was raised in 2024. The cuts are likely to increase pressure on the Bangladeshi government to allow more livelihood opportunities for Rohingya to reduce their dependence on aid. Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean says Rohingya armed groups and criminal gangs, which have lately stepped up recruitment in camps in Bangladesh, will likely take advantage as the refugees’ hardship deepens.

RUSSIA–UKRAINE  Kyiv accepted a U.S. proposal this week for a 30-day ceasefire in its battle to fend off Russia’s 2022 invasion. At a press conference Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said “the idea in itself is the right one” but pointed to “nuances” that he said required “painstaking research”. Among the questions he raised were whether Ukraine would keep receiving Western arms shipments during the truce and what would happen afterward. The Trump administration’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Putin in Moscow that evening. Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov says the Russian president’s reaction shows he does not want a ceasefire at present, at least not without guarantees of gains for the Kremlin, but he does want to keep the door open to dialogue with his U.S. counterpart.

SYRIA  People throughout Syria celebrated Monday’s landmark agreement between the interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which hold large parts of the country’s north east, to integrate the latter’s military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state by year’s end. The pact came at a critical moment, as Damascus dealt with the fallout from deadly clashes on the Mediterranean coast that have exacerbated inter-communal tensions and brought an international backlash. Crisis Group expert Dareen Khalifa says the agreement could prove a turning point in efforts to reunify the war-torn country, though key details remain to be worked out. Concerted diplomacy to that end will be needed in the months ahead.  

GAZA  At a Tuesday summit in Cairo, the Arab League endorsed an Egyptian scheme for reconstructing Gaza after the 2023-2025 war, geared toward establishing a Palestinian state there and in the West Bank. The plan, which is partly intended to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal that the U.S. “take over” the strip, emptying it of its Palestinian population, was welcomed by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas but rejected by Israel. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the document is vague about key political and security questions. Nonetheless, it offers a starting point for diplomatic conversations about getting to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a sustainable vision for its recovery.

PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN  Clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces have continued unabated since Monday along the disputed border between Pakistan’s Khyber district and Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province. Fighting in the area has been occurring sporadically since mid-February, though it has now increased in intensity, with both sides using heavy weaponry to fire on military installations. The skirmishes were sparked by Taliban attempts to build outposts for their troops on the frontier as well as Islamabad’s refusal to reopen the vital Torkham crossing, which has been shut since 21 February, exacting a heavy economic toll on both countries. If differences are not resolved, the confrontation risks escalating, says Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss. Each country accuses the other of harbouring militants who stage deadly cross-border raids.

U.S.-MEXICO  The White House announced Thursday it would suspend tariffs on Mexican imports, following a telephone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum. The 25 per cent levies, which had taken effect two days earlier, are now on hold until 2 April. The Trump administration first threatened the measures (along with comparable trade penalties on Canada) in early February, saying the two U.S. neighbours have been lax in interdicting shipments of the illegal drug fentanyl and in curbing migration. Mexicans were confounded by the tariffs’ imposition, says Crisis Group expert David Mora. Sheinbaum had already done a great deal to respond to U.S. requests, sending 10,000 additional troops to the country’s northern border, transferring 29 drug kingpins to U.S. custody and stepping up raids on fentanyl labs. Much of the Mexican public has rallied behind Sheinbaum, who has an 85 per cent approval rating. 

COLOMBIA  Tensions continued to heighten in Colombia’s Catatumbo region, along the Venezuela border, as the leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) insurgency carried out a string of bombings near the city of Cúcuta on 20 February, hitting police stations and other public buildings. These attacks come just a month after the ELN launched another assault that left 63 dead and more than 80,000 displaced. Crisis Group expert Elizabeth Dickinson says the ELN is moving aggressively to consolidate its hold on the border region’s key trafficking corridors and expel a rival armed group, the 33rd Front. The violence has severe consequences for civilians, several of whom have been assassinated. The widespread planting of landmines is also preventing displaced families from returning home.

SUDAN  The Sudanese army continued to gain ground from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On Sunday, the army announced it had seized al-Gitaina, south of the capital Khartoum, and broken a two-year siege of al-Obeid in North Kordofan. The same day, the RSF signed a charter with allied armed groups, aiming to establish a parallel government. Despite the RSF’s setbacks, no end to the conflict is in sight, says Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael.  The two main belligerents are looking to further entrench themselves in their respective zones of influence. Mediation is unlikely while the army is pushing to retake Khartoum. Outside powers should nonetheless look for opportunities to de-escalate the conflict and work hard for its eventual resolution.

SYRIA  The interim government convened a national dialogue conference in Damascus on Tuesday to chart a path for Syria’s political transition following the Assad regime’s collapse in December. While the interim government has pledged an inclusive transition, critics voiced concern about the limited participation and lack of transparency in the conference. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which control much of Syria’s north east, were excluded from the talks. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says the conference ended up being a largely symbolic exercise. For Syria’s transition to succeed, the interim government should ensure that the political process is based on maximum transparency, inclusion and participation.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group seized Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province, on Sunday, prompting a looting spree by residents in shops, markets and warehouses storing humanitarian supplies. This follows the rebels’ seizure in January of Goma – the capital of North Kivu province. They now seem determined to continue their advance in the country’s east. Meanwhile, on Saturday, 15 February, Angolan President João Lourenço stepped down as mediator between Kigali and Kinshasa. Crisis Group expert Pauline Bax says regional and Western countries should work together to press Rwanda, which has thousands of troops in the area supporting the M23, to withdraw from the eastern DR Congo and put measures in place to relieve a growing humanitarian crisis. The M23’s offensive in the east has killed over 3,000 people and displaced around 700,000.

RUSSIA-EU  On Wednesday, the EU agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia days before the third anniversary of its all-out invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions package came as the U.S. and Russia held talks in Saudi Arabia about ending the war and starting a new era of U.S.-Russian partnership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country would not accept a peace agreement that did not consider Ukraine’s interests, and Trump falsely blamed Ukraine for starting the war with Russia. Crisis Group experts Oleg Ignatov and Lucian Kim say that the contrast between Russia-U.S. rapprochement and EU sanctions illustrates a deepening rift in translatlantic relations.

WEST BANK  The Israeli army demolished dozens of residential buildings in Tulkarem refugee camp on Tuesday as part of a deadly campaign in the occupied West Bank that has killed at least 44 Palestinians, uprooted 45,000 and caused the largest mass displacement of Palestinians in the territory since 1967. Crisis Group expert Tahani Mustafa says this military operation comes as Israel appears increasingly emboldened to pursue West Bank annexation, applying tactics that recall its operations in Gaza. The latest Israeli raids in the West Bank, which started two days after the ceasefire in Gaza, have mostly targeted refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem.

ECUADOR  Voters went to the polls Sunday for the first round of the presidential election, with the incumbent Daniel Noboa and his leading challenger Luisa González finishing in a near tie. The two will now compete in an April runoff. Election day was largely peaceful, with no major incident, despite the severe criminal violence that has gripped the country in recent years. Both Noboa and González raised questions of possible fraud, but electoral observation missions from the European Union and Organization of American States promptly affirmed that the balloting was transparent and well-run. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says the results highlight Ecuador’s profound political polarisation, with opinion split between right- and left-leaning blocs. Whoever wins the second round will need to negotiate with the opposition to govern effectively and to curb the growing power of organised crime.

UKRAINE  U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth sent shock waves through Europe this week when he said the NATO membership Ukraine has long sought is “unrealistic”. Together with news that U.S. President Donald Trump may meet soon with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the statement fuelled speculation that Washington and Moscow will negotiate over Ukraine’s fate without consulting Kyiv and its European backers. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the Ukrainian government looks to be in a precarious position. It has long seemed unlikely that Ukraine could achieve war goals like restoring its pre-2014 borders. Security guarantees it has wanted from a negotiated settlement – like getting a spot in NATO or foreign troops stationed on its territory – may also be out of reach. But discarding these possibilities before talks begin gives the U.S. a weaker hand vis-à-vis the Kremlin. Though Hegseth later walked back some of his remarks, and other U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, made contradictory comments about keeping all options on the table, jitters remain.

U.S.–MIDDLE EAST  President Donald Trump’s incendiary proposal to remove Palestinians from Gaza and take over the enclave continued to reverberate this week, as Jordan’s King Abdullah II became the first Arab leader to visit the White House following the November election. Trump has said the Palestinians could resettle in Jordan and Egypt, indicating that he might use the considerable U.S. assistance that goes to both countries to press their governments to acquiesce. Keen to avoid friction with his country’s biggest patron, the Jordanian king did not publicly confront Trump, says Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna. But popular outrage at the notion of forcibly displacing Palestinians is widespread in the Arab world, particularly with the scale of devastation in Gaza becoming clearer as the tenuous ceasefire proceeds. Sources indicated Wednesday that Egyptian President Abdelfattah al-Sisi will decline White House invitations if the idea remains on the table, a sign of growing pushback.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Despite the Congo River Alliance coalition – headed by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group – declaring a unilateral ceasefire to go into effect Tuesday, it seized more territory in the country’s east, including the city of Nyabibwe, on Wednesday. UN agencies reported that around 3,000 people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced in fighting around the major city of Goma last week with cases of sexual and gender-based violence soaring. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says a lasting ceasefire requires more vigorous regional diplomacy and a firmer international stance against Rwanda’s aggression.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE  Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed that the U.S. “take over” the Gaza Strip and resettle its 2.2 million Palestinians elsewhere, drawing fierce international condemnation, including from Arab states. Meanwhile, Israel continued an offensive in the northern West Bank, targeting Palestinian militants but displacing and harming many civilians. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Trump’s statement could undermine the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza and embolden Israel’s far-right government to try pushing Palestinians out of one or both of the occupied territories.

UKRAINE Amid heightened anticipation that peace negotiations may start soon, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy announced Tuesday that he is prepared to talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who last week also signalled readiness for negotiations, but not directly with Zelenskyy. With the new U.S. administration saying it wants to help to end the war, Moscow and Kyiv have both been trying to make battlefield advances to ensure a better negotiating position, says Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim. Now almost in its fourth year, the war has killed over 45,000 Ukrainian soldiers and approximately 200,000 Russian soldiers, according to Zelenskyy.

LEBANON  Violence erupted at the Lebanese-Israeli border this week, though the fragile truce between Hizbollah and Israel is largely holding. Last Friday, citing security concerns, the Israeli government announced that it would not complete its troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon by Sunday, as required under the ceasefire deal struck in November. Starting on Sunday, displaced residents attempted to return to villages that remained under Israeli occupation, coming under Israeli fire. Israel killed 24 people over two days and wounded well over 100 more. Lebanon has accepted 18 February as the new pullout deadline. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Israel should remove its soldiers promptly, lest their presence precipitate a slide back into conflict. A protracted occupation also risks burnishing Hizbollah’s claims that Israel will never leave Lebanon unless compelled by the group’s armed resistance.

SUDAN  The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced Monday that he is seeking arrest warrants for individuals responsible for atrocities in Sudan’s West Darfur region, urging accountability for war crimes including sexual violence. Fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army has continued in Darfur and other parts of Sudan, with the RSF intensifying its assault on North Darfur’s capital El Fasher and the army reportedly making advances in Khartoum. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says neither side has a path to military victory. Without urgent diplomacy by external powers, especially those with a stake in the conflict, human suffering is likely to worsen in Sudan.

UNITED NATIONS  Two Israeli laws that curtail the operations of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Gaza and the West Bank took effect Thursday. The legislation imposes a de facto ban on UNRWA, the body responsible for helping Palestinian refugees, by outlawing its work in Israel (including in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem, where its West Bank field headquarters is located) and barring Israeli officials from interacting with its staff. Crisis Group expert Daniel Forti says the ban will cut off a lifeline for Gaza’s population, which UNRWA supplies with humanitarian aid and basic services, and risk destabilising the Palestinian enclave during the fragile first phase of the truce between Israel and Hamas. The laws will also have a severe economic impact, as UNRWA employs nearly 17,000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

COLOMBIA  Peace negotiations between the government and the largest remaining insurgency, the National Liberation Army (ELN), collapsed in mid-January, after the armed group launched an offensive in the Catatumbo region along the border with Venezuela. In coordinated attacks, the ELN assassinated dozens of social leaders and ex-combatants of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which it accused of being sympathetic to the Frente 33, a rival armed group, displacing over 30,000 civilians in the process. Crisis Group expert Elizabeth Dickinson says the violence marks a dangerous inflection point in Colombia’s conflict. Tensions among armed groups could erupt into all-out fighting along various fronts. The government should use channels of communication it has established through years of peace efforts with the armed groups to help stop the crisis from spiralling out of control.

HAITI  In a report released Wednesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, risks being completely overrun by gangs unless international actors urgently bolster support for the Kenya-led multinational mission in the country. Over the weekend, Kenya deployed 217 additional police, adding to around 150 officers sent by Guatemala and an advance team of seven soldiers dispatched by El Salvador earlier this month. But while the reinforcements provide much-needed support to Haiti’s overstretched police force, says Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin, the mission remains far short of its planned 2,500 personnel. As the UN Security Council weighs the possibility of switching to a UN peacekeeping mission, external actors must act quickly and decisively to enhance support for the current mission – or it will become increasingly difficult for anyone to curb the escalating gang violence.

MYANMAR  A China-brokered ceasefire between the regime and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic Kokang armed group in northern Shan State, took effect on 18 January. Under the deal, the MNDAA has reportedly agreed to withdraw its forces from Lashio, an important town it seized from regime forces last August, by this coming June. China has reopened trade gates on the Kokang border, which it had closed to press the MNDAA to halt its military actions. Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey says the ceasefire demonstrates China’s leverage over both the regime and the MNDAA. But it could be a delaying tactic by the MNDAA aimed at easing Chinese pressure without immediately handing over Lashio. The border reopening offers much-needed relief to Kokang residents facing shortages of goods and services but falls short of restoring broader Myanmar-China trade, most of which remains blocked.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO  Government forces announced on Monday the recapture of several towns in North Kivu province, though the situation on the ground remains fluid as they fight M23 rebels for territory. The M23 had seized the strategic town of Masisi in early January. Fighting between the rebels, documented by the UN and others to be backed by Rwanda, and the Congolese army has intensified in North Kivu’s Lubero and Masisi territories since December. According to the UN, more than 100,000 people have been displaced by violence in the eastern DR Congo since the year began. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the M23 advances over recent weeks further complicate negotiations between Kinshasa and Kigali to end the conflict. Diplomats, including at the African Union, should step up support for the Angola-led mediation effort, which stalled last month.

GAZA  After fifteen months of war, Hamas and Israel reached a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal Wednesday, meant to take effect Sunday. In the first of three planned stages, Hamas is to release 33 of the remaining hostages it took in October 2023, while Israel would free a number of Palestinian prisoners and gradually withdraw troops from the strip to enable displaced people to return. The deal also aims to significantly increase the amount of humanitarian aid getting into Gaza. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the U.S. and regional powers need to keep pressing the parties to get the fragile agreement into the next phases, which provide for additional hostage-prisoner swaps, and to fulfil the humanitarian provisions for Gaza’s starving population.

LEBANON  On Monday, Lebanese lawmakers made a surprising choice of prime minister, Nawaf Salam, after filling the country’s years-long presidential vacuum on 9 January. Parliament elected army commander Joseph Aoun to the presidency, which had lain vacant since November 2022. Many observers then expected Najib Mikati, Hizbollah’s preferred choice, to become premier, given the group’s reluctant support for Aoun. Instead, most deputies backed Salam, a respected jurist considered outside Lebanon’s ruling class. Crisis Group expert David Wood says the two appointments offer hope for long overdue reform, though both leaders will need to secure buy-in from Hizbollah and other factions. Otherwise, Lebanon could descend into yet more political paralysis, starting during Salam’s efforts to form a government.

CHAD  The presidential guard killed eighteen people in the capital N’Djamena Wednesday, in what the government claimed was a foiled attack on the presidential palace. Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco says the circumstances are unclear, however, as the alleged assailants were carrying no firearms. The ambiguity surrounding the incident has further jangled nerves among city residents. In any case, the events are a sign that the authorities are on high alert, with heavier military deployments in N’Djamena in recent weeks. The government’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, coupled with tensions in its relations with traditional partner France, have reportedly sown divisions in the army, the president’s key support base.

GAZA  Israeli airstrikes continued throughout the strip this week, with the official Palestinian death toll since 7 October 2023 topping 46,000. Winter weather is exacerbating the desperate humanitarian crisis, leading to several deaths among the hundreds of thousands of displaced. Meanwhile, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which had regained momentum last month with Qatari, Egyptian and U.S. mediation, appear to have stalled once more. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has undermined truce talks by adding new demands and insisting on “total victory”, may be more amenable to a deal after the U.S. presidential inauguration, as Donald Trump’s team has encouraged. But a ceasefire will be insufficient to alleviate the suffering in Gaza without substantial pressure on Israel to allow in far more aid.

U.S.–SUDAN  The U.S. State Department said Tuesday it had determined that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have committed genocide in the course of Sudan’s civil war. It has imposed sanctions on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, as well as seven RSF-owned companies and an unnamed person based in the United Arab Emirates for “their role in procuring weapons for the RSF”. The announcement followed a 2023 U.S. determination that both the RSF and the Sudanese army, the other main belligerent, had committed war crimes, while the RSF had also committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. Concerning this week’s finding, Crisis Group expert Magnus Taylor says the RSF has undoubtedly perpetrated many heinous acts during the war, including mass killings targeted at certain ethnic groups. But how much U.S. sanctions will advance rather than hinder the immediate necessity of ending the horrific war is unclear. The army may use the genocide determination as justification for avoiding serious negotiations with the RSF, which in turn is unlikely to halt its ruinous military campaign.

AFGHANISTAN  The Taliban-led economy ministry told NGOs last week that if they continue to employ Afghan women, the de facto authorities will revoke their licences and suspend their operations. The warning, coming weeks after another decree that barred women from getting medical training, suggests an impending crackdown on NGOs, including those delivering life-saving aid. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says these decisions put humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan at risk, as donors recoil at the tightening restrictions on women’s rights. Needs might soon be increasing, moreover, due to disputes with Pakistan over insurgent activity along the border, which could lead Islamabad to deport Afghan refugees, as it has done in the past. The Taliban should let humanitarian NGOs carry out their mission unfettered.

SYRIA  The caretaker government faced backlash this week after its education ministry floated curriculum changes that were widely perceived as imposing a conservative Islamist slant on teaching, raising concerns about the trajectory of governance. The criticism prompted the acting education minister to say curricula would largely remain unaltered pending review by specialist committees. The main amendments for the time being, the minister added, will pertain to removing symbols glorifying the Assad regime, adopting the new revolutionary flag and adjusting Islamic education courses. To avoid inflaming tensions that could endanger the post-Assad transition, says Crisis Group expert Dareen Khalifa, the new leaders should maintain a hands-off approach to education. Any divisive decision could be seen as undermining their pledge to safeguard Syria’s social and cultural diversity.

UNITED STATES  A pickup truck plowed into New Year’s revelers in New Orleans, Louisiana early Wednesday morning, killing fourteen and injuring many more. The driver, a U.S. army veteran, wounded two police officers before being killed himself in a subsequent shootout. Authorities disabled several improvised explosive devices both inside the truck and in the immediate vicinity. President Joe Biden said the attacker appears to have been “inspired by ISIS” (an ISIS flag was also found inside the truck). In Las Vegas, Nevada, another truck laden with fuel canisters and firework mortars blew up outside the Trump International Hotel Wednesday, killing the driver (a serving U.S. soldier) and injuring seven bystanders. It so far appears the two incidents are unrelated. It is critical, says Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna, that U.S. politicians allow the investigations to proceed without speculating or instigating panic. The decades-long war on terror shows the pitfalls of leveraging public unease for political ends.

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