Cop presidency issues plea for nations to come together and agree a deal
Damian Carrington
After a fast moving night, with petrostates accused of blocking a plan for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, a large group of developed and developing nations saying that including a roadmap is a red line for them, and civil society accusing rich nations of failing to fulfil their obligations to fund climate action in poor nations, the Brazilian president of Cop30, André Corrêa do Lago, has issued a plea for cooperation.
“We need to preserve this [Paris Accord] regime with the spirit of cooperation, not in the spirit of who is going to win or is willing to lose,” he said. “Because we know if we don’t strengthen this, everybody will lose.”
The world is currently on target for a catastrophic 2.6C of global heating and funds to protect people against climate impacts are puny. “Extreme weather events are telling us that the work we do here is urgent,” Do Lago said. He is usually an energetic and charismatic speaker, but looked tired – he may well have had no sleep last night.
One key message was that the Paris agreement was working and had achieved much more than critics say: ”This regime [caused] not only the action of countries, the action of citizens, but the action of communities, business, technology.” But it must be strengthened, he said.
Cop decisions are made by consensus, giving effective vetoes to small groups of countries, like the fossil-fuel rich Arab group. But Do Lago defended consensus: “The same consensus that exasperates so many people – that is the strength of this regime,” as it sends the most powerful messages to the world.
Do Lago emphasised the huge benefits of climate action: “We are creating a new economy that offers amazing opportunities for growth, amazing opportunities for jobs. This is and has to be a positive agenda. This cannot be an agenda that divides us.” But he said the pull out of the US under climate denier Donald Trump was a challenge.
“But let’s not stress divides now, in the moments we have left to reach an agreement, we need to preserve this regime,” he said.
Do Lago said there was going to be a meeting of all the countries’ ministers this morning to try and thrash out a deal, As things stand, that is a huge task.
Key events
‘The fight continues,’ vows high-ambition nations at Cop30.
To cheers and loud applause, Colombia led a fight back by dozens of countries to try to revive the roadmap for a fossil fuel phase-out on Friday morning as Cop30 entered its final scheduled day.
With this core demand currently removed from the negotiating text at the behest of major oil producing countries, the Colombia environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres warned the Belém climate conference was at risk of being decided by vetoes, rather than ambition.
“The message is unequivocal – we must leave this Cop with a global roadmap that guides us not symbolically but concretely our collective effort to phase out fossil fuels. We need global ownership, a map do camino (roadmap) that truly moves us forward,” she said to a packed and emotional press conference room, flanked by ministers from more than a dozen countries.
In a clear sign of the slow pace of progress at the United Nations talks, Colombia and the Netherlands announced they will hold a first international conference on the transition away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, next april 28-29. They said this will be a separate but complementary process for high-ambition nations.
“We have taken this step because, simply, we cannot wait any longer,” said Maina Talia, Minister for Home Affairs, Climate Change and Environment of Tuvalu, which aims to stage the second such conference in 2027 alongside other island nations. “The Pacific came to Cop30 demanding a survival roadmap away from fossil fuels. Yet this text does not even name the threat to our existence. This process is failing us so we will not wait.”
The planned series of annual conferences would bring together nations, businesses and civil society groups to create an exit ramp from the era of coal, gas and oil by sharing best practices and working together on trade, financing and technology.
During the often raucous session, the loudest cheers were for a speech by Juan Carlos Monterrey, the climate envoy for Panama, who called for people outside the conference to make their frustration heard.
“The current text fails the Amazon, fails science, it fails justice, and fails the people,” he said. “There is no mention of phase down or phase out or ending deforestation, nothing.” He said the text was even failing to repeat the language on fossil fuels already agreed in previous years..
Referring to scientific warnings that the world is fast approaching – and may even have passed – dangerous tipping points, he poured scorn on the current iteration of the negotiating text: “Our elementary school kids are reading textbooks that are more science-based and more in line with reality than the text we have here at the climate cop where we are supposed to fix this problem.”
The Brazilian presidency has said it removed the reference to a roadmap because too many countries were opposed, but these forces have not so far gone public – a sign perhaps that they know the vast majority of people in the world want their governments to take stronger climate action.
“We have voices from every single continent. This is a global effort and we are coming together to push at a global level to make sure this happens,” said Tina Stege, Climate Envoy for Marshall Islands. “We are really grateful for the leadership of Marina SIlva and Lula’s call to transition away and for his call to take forward this momentum at G20. Countries all around the world are here to give him the mandate to launch the roadmap. We know there are some who are not convinced but we will not wait, we can’t afford to wait. As a nation that is just two meters above sea level we know that climate action cannot wait. This roadmap is inevitable, it’s happening.”
The press conference wrapped up with defiant words from Colombia’s Irene Vélez Torres. “The fight continues,” she said.
The EU’s climate chief has warned Cop30 could end without a deal after host Brazil proposed an agreement that does not include a roadmap away from fossil fuels, AFP is reporting.
“What is now on the table is unacceptable. And given that we’re so far away from where we should be, it’s unfortunate to say, but we’re really facing a no-deal scenario,” European Commissioner for Climate, Wopke Hoekstra, told reporters at in Belem.
We understand Hoekstra is due to speak in more detail soon and will say: “This is in no way close to the ambition we need on mitigation. We are disappointed with the text currently on the table. We are willing to be ambitious on adaptation, but we would like to make clear that any language on finance should squarely be within the commitment reached last year on the NCQG.”
Damian Carrington
Cop presidency issues a plea for nations to come together and agree a deal
The Brazilian president of Cop30, André Corrêa do Lago, has issued a plea to the world’s nations to come together and agree a deal here in Belém.
The negotiations are fraught at the moment, with a stand-off over starting a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, and rows over the provision of climate finance from rich nations to poorer ones.
“We need to preserve this [Paris Accord] regime with the spirit of cooperation, not in the spirit of who is going to win or is willing to lose. Because we know if we don’t strengthen this, everybody will lose.”
An informal stocktake plenary is now underway [see live feed at the top of the blog]. Here the presidency will update parties on the state of the negotiations.
My colleague Damian Carrington will be keeping across the main developments.
Countries still far apart with little progress made on scheduled final day
Fiona Harvey
With only hours to go before the official end of the Cop30 summit at 6pm on Friday, the talks look nowhere near a conclusion. The fire that broke out on Thursday afternoon disrupted negotiations and forced a delay to key meetings, but that was not the real problem here. The problem is that countries are still far apart on the core issues that will define this Cop.
Those are: the beginning of a process to outline a “roadmap” for the phase-out of fossil fuels; a response to the fact that countries’ national climate plans are inadequate to limit global heating to 1.5C; finance from the rich to help the poor world cope with the climate crisis.
It is now almost a certainty that Cop30 will run into overtime, despite Brazil’s confident predictions earlier in the week of wrapping up the most contentious issues days ahead of schedule. Instead, the rifts among countries appear to have deepened, and criticism of the presidency itself is also growing.
New draft text presented about an hour before dawn broke in Belem on Friday showed key commitments had been excised. There was no reference to fossil fuels, and options to put off any consideration of the weakness of current climate plans to another day.
The draft prompted a pre-emptive letter from dozens of the countries that support a fossil fuel phase-out, revealed late on Thursday night by the Guardian. Those countries – a mix of developed and developing – insisted that an outcome to Cop30 that failed to address the need to “transition away from fossil fuels” was unacceptable.
Yet what countries are being asked to agree on fossil fuels is not even a roadmap in itself – it is a “roadmap to a roadmap”. In its most likely form, it would merely entail governments agreeing to begin a process of consultations in an open forum in which each could make their voices heard, that would last for a period spanning several Cops, of two or perhaps three years.
Each country would be able to set its own path. None would be forced to set an end date for their production or use of fossil fuels. None would be forced to set any milestones along the road, or agree to any specific measures.
In essence, it would only be an agreement to start talking in a little more detail about the promise made in 2023 at Cop28 in Dubai, in paragraph 28 of the decision text from that Cop, to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
The Guardian understands that the Arab Group, led by Saudi Arabia, and some members of the Like Minded Developing Country group, in which Saudi Arabia is also a prime mover, and which also includes smaller developing countries such as Bolivia and Venezuela, are leading the opposition to any discussion or mention of fossil fuels in the outcome text.
Big fossil fuel consuming countries are also said to be against mentions of a phase-out. But China’s position is understood to be ambivalent, and the position of India – which hopes to host Cop33 – is less clear.
And some countries that have fossil fuel reserves are in favour of the transition away – Colombia, despite coal reserves, is strongly championing the move, as is Sierra Leone; Nigeria, a major oil producer, is understood to be leaning towards the phase-out.
The Brazilian Cop30 presidency, which started amid high praise and goodwill, for all the strong preparatory work that the country’s team put in, has begun to come in for some stiff criticism from several countries.
The Guardian has been told that its “shuttle diplomacy” – summoning countries individually or in groups for private consultations with the presidency, in turn – is frustating to some who want a chance to negotiate directly with one another, in something more like the “mutirao” or Indigenous tribal meeting format the Brazil promised from the start.
There is also anger that Brazil “seems to be listening only to the Arab Group” and is giving more power to those who do not want mention of fossil fuels in the text.
Meanwhile, negotiations on how to address the shortfall in emissions pledges compared to what is needed to limit heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels are still not concluded, and the options in the text include further dialogue or a “global implementation accelerator” by which countries could voluntarily sign up to take stronger action.
Andre Correa do Lago, Brazil’s Cop president, just before starting the opening plenary told the Guardian: “We are going to have a plenary then engage in groups of ministerial discussions, in which we will have ample time for countries to exchange ideas and to try to make some changes [to the outcome].”
On the phase out of fossil fuels, he said “This issue has grown in importance. But more than 80 countries have said it is a non-starter. My president has said it is a priority. But we will see, as many countries have clearly said that they do not want this at the moment.”
At this point of a Cop, there is often confusion and frustration. Brazil still has some time to resolve these issues – but it’s worth remembering that the host country’s primary stated aim coming into this Cop was to “send a signal that the multilateral process is working”. It will require deep reserves of diplomacy just to prevent this Cop breaking down completely.
The AFP news agency has an interesting line from France which is claiming that Russia, the Saudis and India are the ones blocking Cop30 deal on fossil fuels.
France said Friday that Russia, Saudi Arabia and India, along with many emerging economies, were the main obstacles to a Cop30 deal on phasing out fossil fuels.
“Who are the biggest blockers? We all know them. They are the oil-producing countries, of course. Russia, India, Saudi Arabia. But they are joined by many emerging countries,” French ecological transition minister Monique Barbut told AFP.
German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider said the latest draft deal unveiled by Cop30 host Brazil “cannot remain as it is” and warned that “negotiations will be tough” on the last day of the UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil.
At least 29 nations will not sign an agreement with no mention of a fossil fuel phase out
Overnight the Guardian revealed that at least 29 nations supporting a phase-out of fossil fuels at the climate summit had sent a letter to the Brazilian Cop presidency threatening to block any agreement that did not include such a commitment, in a significant escalation of tensions at the crunch talks.
The leaked letter also demanded that the roadmap be included in the outcome of the talks.
Here is the text of letter in full:
Dear Presidency,
We wish to reaffirm our deep commitment to working hand in hand with you to ensure that COP30 becomes a true success—one that demonstrates to the world that climate multilateralism can indeed deliver the implementation results needed to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach. The legacy of the Presidency in making COP30 a milestone moment will depend on the quality—rather than the speed—of the outcome. A text that is inclusive, balanced, and ambitious would reflect the leadership needed to inspire confidence. Conversely, a weak text would be remembered as a missed and regrettable opportunity and would undermine the credibility of the process, of the Presidency, and of the regime itself.
We express deep concern regarding the current proposal under consideration for a take it or leave it. We acknowledge the significant effort made by the Presidency to move the process toward conclusion, and we reaffirm our commitment to engage constructively. However, we must be honest: in its present form, the proposal does not meet the minimum conditions required for a credible COP outcome.
We cannot support an outcome that does not include a roadmap for implementing a just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels. This expectation is shared by a vast majority of Parties, as well as by science and by the people who are watching our work closely. The world is looking to this COP to demonstrate continuity and progress following the Global Stocktake. Anything less would inevitably be seen as a step backward.
Third, the exclusion of a roadmap for addressing climate–nature interdependence, particularly to halt deforestation—remains deeply concerning. Not reflecting this signals that even the least contentious issues cannot be agreed.
Fourth, ambition must be matched with appropriate means of implementation. We reinforce that implementation needs to be supported through concrete outcomes on finance, technology, and capacity-building. Without this, ambition remains rhetorical and implementation becomes unattainable.
Finally, we are concerned by emerging narratives suggesting that ambitious countries are slowing progress. This does not reflect the real dynamics. The challenge arises when a package that omits essential elements is presented with the expectation of unconditional acceptance, reflecting only what is acceptable to a limited few. Ambition should not be portrayed as an obstacle; it is the efforts to constrain it that hinder our collective progress.
For these reasons, we respectfully yet firmly request that the Presidency present a revised proposal that reflects the views of the majority and restores balance, ambition, and credibility to the process. We stand ready to work constructively with you toward such an outcome.
This COP remains a crucial opportunity for leadership. But true leadership requires delivering a text that advances the global response to the climate crisis—not one that lowers expectations to accommodate the most reluctant. The success of the Presidency will lie in presenting a balanced and forward-looking outcome, rather than in asking others to accept only what the least ambitious are willing to allow.
The Guardian understands that the signatories include: Austria, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Guatemala, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, the Marshall Islands, Mexico, Monaco, the Netherlands, Panama, Palau, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK and Vanuatu.
The draft text is a detailed and lengthy document but experts are already homing in on what they consider to be the most important aspects.
Ed King from the Global Strategic Communications Council has this take:
This is Brazil’s headliner, so this document is important and worth digging into. Below is a hot-take of the key elements:
*Adaptation – calls for efforts to triple adaptation finance, ‘urges’ developed countries to increase provision of climate finance (para 53, Mutirão).
*Finance – high-level ministerial round table to reflect on the implementation of the $300bn & $1.3 trillion and a 2-year work programme on the provision of finance (para 52, Mutirão).
*Mitigation – no mention of fossil fuels or paragraph 28, but calls for launch of a ‘global implementation accelerator’ as a cooperative, voluntary initiative under the guidance of the presidencies to report back at Cop31.
*NDCs – calls on countries to ‘accelerate the full implementation’ of NDCs [emissions pledges] while ‘striving to do better’ collectively and cooperatively (para 33, Mutirão).
*1.5C/NDC gap – calls for a ‘Belém Mission to 1.5’ aimed at accelerating action to close the gap, also to report back at Cop31 (para 42, Mutirão).
*Trade – dialogues over the next 2 years with UN trade agencies to address trade & climate, slams unilateral measures (para 55-56, Mutirão), no mentions of Brazil’s trade forum.
*Transparency – acknowledges reporting creates burdens (para 56, Mutirão).
Global goal on adaptation – the range of ‘indicators’ related to adaptation has been reduced and adopted, but defined as voluntary and not a basis for financial commitments; contains a placeholder for adaptation finance goal; establishes 2-year policy alignment plan (para 6, 7, 8, 21, 34, GGA).
Meanwhile Simon Evans from Carbon Brief has a snap analysis on Bluesky highlighting the lack of a road map and no mention of fossil fuels. He also points out there is no paragraph 28 [which calls for calls for deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5C].
He also says the latest draft would be a first-ever Cop reference to limiting “overshoot” of 1.5C [above preindustrial levels] stating “its resolve to pursue efforts to limit [warming] to 1.5C [and] to limit both the magnitude and the duration of any temperature overshoot”
Away from the hustle and bustle of this year’s Cop esteemed Guardian journalist Paul Brown takes a poignant and sobering long view of the process in his last weatherwatch column.
As we wait for more reaction to the text it is worth catching up with this piece on Saudi Arabia and its role as the biggest blocker of climate action – even while its population wrestle with the devastating impacts of the climate crisis.
Reaction to the draft text issued overnight is starting to come in as Belem wakes up – and it is far from positive.
Bronwen Tucker, public finance lead at Oil Change International, is not holding back:
This is outrageous. We came here to secure a COP 30 package for justice and equity. The Presidency has presented a shamefully weak text that fails to mention fossil fuels, fails to deliver accountability towards rich countries’ finance obligations, and only makes vague promises on adaptation. The Belém Action Mechanism for a just transition needs to be protected at all costs in the final hours. But let’s be clear, we need all of these pillars to work together in one package: the just transition, public finance, and planning for a fair fossil fuel phaseout.
A large group of countries have been vocal in their support for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, but rich parties are still refusing to deliver the debt-free public finance on fair terms that is key to make it happen. Until they stop blocking efforts to address the systemic barriers developing countries face to phasing out fossil fuels, any roadmap will be a dead-end.
On Bluesky the World Wildlife Fund said:
The latest draft text from COP30 is extremely disappointing. Vested fossil fuel interests and big agriculture must be celebrating the lack of any roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels and to stop deforestation. We call for substantial improvements to stay on a pathway to a 1.5C world.
Greenpeace said the text “fails to raise ambition, protect forests, deliver finance”
Tracy Carty, climate politics expert, Greenpeace International added:
2035 emission targets are wildly off track and this Mutirão text might as well be blank as it does so little to bridge the 1.5°C ambition gap or push countries to accelerate action. There is no option here but for countries to reject it and send it back to the presidency for revision.
She said hopes had been raised by initial proposals for roadmaps both to end deforestation and fossil fuels, “but these roadmaps have disappeared and we’re again lost without a map to 1.5°C and fumbling our way in the dark while time is running out.”
COP30 has shown rising support for a roadmap away from fossil fuels, so the Belem outcome must include it to ensure we end the burning of oil, gas and coal as quickly as possible. Reports and more talks are not enough. We need a global response plan.
Good morning, Matthew Taylor here and I will be hosting the blog for the next few hours on what is supposed to be the final day at Cop30. It is likely to be a fascinating – and hectic – phase of the negotiations.
Draft texts drop early in the morning with no mention of fossil fuels
Damian Carrington
The dramatic scenes on Thursday of the global climate summit going up in flames were too obvious a metaphor for anyone to miss. Thankfully no-one was seriously injured, although 13 people were being treated for smoke inhalation.
“Today’s fire felt symbolic of the world we’re living in – a reminder of how quickly things can fall apart when we move fast and without care,” said Gunjan Nanda, co-founder of the Entertainment + Culture Pavilion, one of those most damaged by the fire.
“We are reminded that millions of people living on the frontlines of the climate crisis are already living with the loss that comes with wildfires, extreme heat, and abnormal weather patterns,” Nanda said. “If anything, this moment strengthened our conviction: the work we do – bringing culture, community, and justice to the centre of climate action – is more urgent than ever.”
Whether the fire has brought added urgency to the national negotiators resuming their talks today remains to be seen. It is the last scheduled day of Cop30, but most Cops run over time, and the delay caused by fire suggests this one is now certain to.
The last two weeks have seen an extraordinary range of theme days, which shine the spotlight on key issues. Health, jobs, education, human rights, workers, industry, transport, tourism, forests, oceans, children and food and farming were among the more than two dozen themes. It shows that the climate crisis now impacts every facet of human life and nature.
But we are now down to the wire, as the UN secretary general António Guterres told delegates on Thursday. He was blunt about the stakes: the yawning gap between today’s climate action and that needed is a “death sentence for many”.
The biggest fight is about developing a road map for a transition away from fossil fuels. It is objectively extraordinary that it took 28 years of Cops for the root cause of global heating to even be mentioned in a final Cop decision, in Dubai in 2023. The reason is that Cops make decisions by consensus, meaning small groups of fossil-fuel-heavy states effectively have a veto.
Sources told the Guardian on Thursday that some petro states, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, and some large fossil fuel consuming countries, including India had rejected the road map and the proposal had been stripped from the main draft negotiating text.
But overnight, my colleague Fiona Harvey revealed more than two dozen countries that back a roadmap, including Colombia, France, Mexico, Palau and the UK, fighting back, saying they would not accept a deal without one. More than 80 countries gave their support to a roadmap on Tuesday, though this included few major fossil fuel producers.
Early this morning, the draft texts dropped. The key text contains no road map and no mention of fossil fuels. The diplomatic skills of the Brazilian hosts of Cop30 face a severe challenge.
Developing a road map for a transition away from fossil fuels, which all acknowledge will vary from one country to another, may not sound like a very radical move. But the power of Cop decisions, to which all 196 countries put their name, is the signal they send to the world beyond Cop.
When the Paris agreement was signed in 2015, founded on voluntary national actions, the world was on track for 4C of global heating – Armageddon territory. Today, climate action has cut that to 2.6C, still far too high, but significantly lower. A road map further strengthens that signal – that the fossil fuel era is over – giving society the confidence to move past it.
However, the feat Brazil has to pull off is far more complex than just a single issue. There are a multitude of crucial and interlocking decisions that have to be agreed. Can the adaptation finance from rich nations needed to protect people who have done little to cause the climate crisis be trebled? The draft text “calls for efforts” to do so.
Can a plan to ensure that a new green economy is fair for all – a just transition – be clinched? Countries may yield a little in one area if they gain in another, creating a multi-dimensional puzzle to be solved.
In the aftermath of the fire, Mohamed Adow, a Cop powerhouse and director of think tank Power Shift Africa said: “Even in a moment of chaos, one thing stood out: people from every corner of the world, different nations, creeds and affiliations, looked out for one another.”
“When faced with a crisis, cooperation wasn’t a slogan, but a human instinct in its rawest, truest form,” he said. “That spirit is precisely what climate action demands. If we can respond to the planet’s emergencies with the same unity shown in that tense moment, Cop30 might yet be remembered not for an incident, but for a turning point.”
