COP30 started surprisingly smoothly on Monday, with the Brazilian presidency averting a fight over the agenda by setting aside discussions on four contentious issues: finance from rich countries, trade measures, boosting emissions-cutting ambition in line with 1.5C, and transparency of national climate data.
Since then, countries have engaged in a total of seven hours worth of consultations, which Brazilian officials described as “constructive”.
Yet in a plenary session that lasted less than 10 minutes, COP30 president André Correa do Lago said parties need more time to unlock talks. The four items will remain deadlocked until Saturday, when a new stocktaking plenary is scheduled.
“This is a very complex process,” said Tulio Andrade, COP30 director of strategy. “On Sunday, when we were finalising the agenda consultations, we had parties very far from one another. What we’re seeing is a movement where they’re getting closer.”
“We have been having, especially due to geopolitical difficulties, quite a divisive house for a long time. What we’re seeing now is a healthy dialogue like we haven’t seen in a long, long time,” Andrade added at a press conference in Belém.
EU negotiator Jacob Werksman said that the challenge at this COP is that, while science says climate plans need to cut emissions faster, “there is no particular agenda item” to address the gap in ambition in current climate plans, which is why the EU wants an agenda item on this.
“We think that the conversations that we’ve been having for the past couple of days are beginning to build some bridges. We’re definitely not there yet, we’re just two days into COP. But there will be a few more efforts as we connect today,” he told a press conference in Belém, adding that there are still questions on how these thorny issues will be taken forward by Brazil.
India – which left last year’s COP29 furious when a new $300bn finance goal was agreed without their support – would be open to discuss more ambitious NDCs only if finance is tackled, another delegate in the room told Climate Home News. Andrade said India is “very engaged” in the process and “presenting collaborative solutions”.
Unilateral trade measures could be another controversial issue proposed by China and other emerging economies. The EU – which is implementing its own carbon border tax – said they were prepared to talk about trade but only “without prejudice” and added that they don’t want disputes that belong in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to be discussed at COP.
“There is the question on how do we take these four agenda items and convert them into decision texts, which is something that the Brazilian presidency has been honestly trying to achieve,” he added.
One observer with access to behind-closed-door negotiations said the postponement until Saturday is “a bit alarming” and could delay work. It remains unclear if the proposed initiatives would be discussed in a cover decision – a general text proposed by the COP presidency – or in any of the established negotiating tracks.
Agreeing on a cover decision could get tricky, as the four proposed agenda items don’t mention adaptation, loss and damage or “any of the other issues that tend to make a balanced package,” Werksman said.
Still, COP30 president André Correa do Lago said he hoped to have good news by the end of the stocktaking plenary. “I hope we can show that the consultations have been extremely constructive,” he said at a press conference.
COP30 president dismisses suggestion for fossil fuel roadmap
Brazil’s president Lula opened talks in Belém with the unexpected suggestion that delegates discuss a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels and to halt deforestation. But Brazilian officials have now dismissed the idea.
COP30 president André Correa do Lago told a press conference today that the proposed roadmap “is not an agenda item and it is not at the moment anything that was raised during the COP.”
The country’s NDC climate plan – published a year ago at COP29 – says that it “would welcome the launching of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels”. Correa do Lago said that this commitment is what Lula referred to.
“Brazil would participate in this kind of discussion,” he said. “President Lula very clearly put this subject at the centre of his concerns regarding COP30 because it is something that we have in agreement inside Brazil and we put that in our NDC.”
The South American country is planning a major expansion of oil and gas in the next decade, and it controversially awarded a drilling permit in the sea 540 kilometres from the mouth of the Amazon river to state-owned Petrobras just days before COP30.
However, the country’s environment minister Marina Silva also floated the idea for a fossil fuel transition roadmap earlier in June, arguing that “the worst possible thing would be for us to not plan for this transition”.
Observers told Climate Home that some countries have submitted proposals to discuss such a planned roadmap, with oil-producing governments pushing back with procedural arguments.
Neighbouring Colombia is one of the countries who have championed the idea, and even announced they would host the first International Conference for the Phase-Out of Fossil Fuels in April 2026.
Developing countries want just energy transition mechanism
Campaigners have hailed victory after a group of 134 developing countries – known as the G77 – and China called for the creation of a just transition mechanism to follow through on talks to ensure the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy is fair to workers, protects nature and fosters social justice beyond COP30.
The G77 and China constitute the largest negotiation block in the UN climate talks.
The group said the mechanism could include technical assistance, promote international cooperation and foster new partnerships to help countries accelerate the move away from coal, oil and gas to cleaner energy systems in a way that is fair. COP30 could agree to develop a mechanism in 2026 for adoption at COP31 next year, the group said.
Anabella Rosemberg, a senior advisor on just transition at Climate Action Network, described the move as “a breakthrough”.
Campaigners have made the creation of a Belém Action Mechanism core to their demands at COP30. They argue that such a framework would help bring coherence to a fragmented landscape of just transition initiatives and provide countries with the knowledge and support they need to ensure that the shift to renewable energy doesn’t leave fossil fuel workers behind and promotes sustainable development.
But some developed countries, including Norway and the UK, have opposed creating yet another institution in the UN climate architecture, arguing that such efforts take time and money, which are in short supply.
Rosemberg said the European Union, Australia and Switzerland also argued that creating a new mechanism would duplicate existing arrangements – concerns which, she said, were “solvable if parties are committed to make just transition happen”.
“Every single party is saying that… just transition is critical, but they cannot just say that and then do nothing about it,” she said.
…while rich nations join just mineral supply chain push
Negotiations on the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) also saw the UK propose language on the importance of fair, transparent, traceable and environmentally sustainable mineral supply chains for the energy transition.
The UK noted the need for community consultation and local value addition – where minerals are processed near to where they are mined, creating jobs and generating taxes locally. The proposal was backed by Australia and the European Union, making it the first time developed countries have shown formal support for including minerals in the negotiations, according to observers in the room.
Burkina Faso (on behalf of the Least Developed Countries), Uganda and South Africa echoed their support for including minerals in the text. Developing countries have previously called for the JTWP to address the impacts and benefits of mining for the energy transition.
Last week, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told leaders gathered in Belém that it is “impossible to discuss the energy transition without talking about critical minerals, essential to make batteries, solar panels and energy systems”.
Momentum grows for new adaptation finance goal
Developing nations are increasingly rallying behind a proposal – first put forward by the group of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) for a new goal to triple adaptation finance to about $120 billion a year by 2030.
If agreed, that would replace a pledge made by developed countries at COP26 four years ago to double adaptation funding for developing nations by 2025. That promise is set to be broken as governments cut overseas spending amid mounting geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal pressures.
Lina Yassin, an adaptation negotiator from Sudan, which is part of the LDC group, told Climate Home News that the proposal has received “positive signals” from many members of the G77 group of developing countries.
“All developing countries agree that scaling up adaptation finance is critical and a successful ‘Adaptation COP’ must deliver a renewed commitment on this front,” she added. “The GGA indicators are important tools, but without finance, the GGA framework cannot be implemented”.
But many developed countries, including the EU, remain opposed to a new adaptation finance commitment, observers said, seeing that as a way to reopen negotiations over a new UN climate finance goal (NCQG) that was agreed at COP29 last year.
Maria Samuelsen, chief negotiator for Denmark, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said at a press conference today that there is recognition in the NCQG to do more to enhance finance for adaptation, which she described as a priority for the EU. “The NCQG was just agreed last year and there is a lot of work to do on making progress on that,” she added.
IEA: “Age of electricity” is here
In Paris this morning, the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook report, modelling trends in energy supply and demand under various scenarios.
This year, after pressure from the Trump administration, the agency introduced a “Current Policies Scenario” (CPS) alongside its usual “Stated Policies Scenario” (SPS) and 1.5C-aligned Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
The CPS sees oil and gas demand continuing to rise until at least 2050 – which is why the US wanted it included. The IEA describes that as “cautious” and “anchored in enacted laws and measures”.
It attracted headlines with its apocalyptic predictions. But Ember’s chief analyst Dave Jones said the CPS is “behind the curve of technology change”, and E3G’s Maria Pastukhova said it only suits a few fossil fuel-producing countries.
The changes between last year’s and this year’s SPS – which European Climate Foundation CEO called the IEA’s “main scenario” and the IEA calls “a dynamic reading of today’s policy settings” – shed light on developments over the last twelve months.
This year’s SPS models that electricity demand growth will be greater than thought a year ago, due partly to more American data centres and air conditioners in the Arab world.
On the one hand, oil demand will be boosted by Trump’s removal of incentives for Americans to buy electric vehicles. On the other, electric vehicle uptake in the developing world – even outside of China – is expected to grow faster than thought last year.
Coal will stick around for longer than thought in China, as grid integration problems slow down the roll-out of renewables. And there will be more gas for transport – like CNG cars and LNG ships – and for electricity, than previously modelled.
Stepping away from the year-on-year changes, the big picture is that renewables are set to grow faster than fossil fuels – even under Trump’s favoured scenario. The head of the IEA Fatih Birol told an online press conference that the “age of electricity” is here.
In Belém, Rachel Cleetus from the Union of Concerned Scientists told journalists that the growth of renewables is “extraordinary” but must be matched by “a fast, fair phase-out of fossil fuels”.
UN-backed roadmap guides PR firms to drop fossil fuel clients
A year after UN chief António Guterres called on PR firms to cut ties with fossil fuel clients and “stop acting as enablers of planetary destruction,” a first roadmap outlining how they can do so has emerged at COP30.
The blueprint – designed by a group of advertising and climate experts and backed by the UN – sets out “five levers” that PR agencies can pull to wean themselves off fossil fuel companies in a “commercially viable and legally compliant” way.
Advertising agencies first need to identify how much of their revenue depends on fossil fuel clients and work with their legal team to devise a sound phase-out plan that respects contractual obligations. With that in hand, executives can reassure their board members to secure their backing and support staff through the transition. Finally, they can write a fossil fuel policy and integrate it into the agency’s daily work.
The goal is to reach the end of a fossil fuel contract with its revenue already replaced so the agency can let it expire without disruption, and turn down new fossil fuel work with confidence, the roadmap document explains.
Florencia Lujani, co-founder of ACT Climate Labs which developed the blueprint, said phasing out fossil fuel work makes business sense for ad agencies that should reduce risky exposure to the industry amid blowbacks from regulators and the public. She added that by taking on fossil fuel clients, agencies are working against the long-term interests of many of their other clients, like food producers who are impacted by climate change.
While oil and gas account for less than 0.7% of the $1.08T global ad market, a handful of the world’s largest agencies take on the lion’s share of fossil fuel work, the report found.
Edelman – which provides media services to the COP30 presidency – earns an estimated 5.6% of its revenue from fossil fuel clients, including Shell and Chevron, a significantly higher share than any of its competitors, according to analysis by Clean Creatives.
Selwin Hart, special adviser to the UN Secretary General on climate action, said the blueprint is a “constructive and substantive answer” to Guterres’ call to action, while providing evidence that transitioning away from fossil fuels is “an immense commercial opportunity that benefits all”.
Indigenous people sailed to make their demands heard
A flotilla with dozens of boats sailed the Guajará Bay – in the Amazon River Delta- this morning, marking the start of the People’s Summit, a civil society event parallel to COP30.
The press call said that the main goal of the event was to denounce false climate solutions, but in reality, it was much more than that. The slogans varied from “agriculture passes, destruction stays” and “we are the climate resistance” to “free Palestine”.
It was mostly an Indigenous Peoples’ action demanding access to the COP30 negotiating rooms. But the group supporting it was so diverse that it included fishermen, campaigners from as far as India and even friars.
One of the main boats in the flotilla was a vessel named ‘Caravan of the Response,’ a nod to the ‘we are the response’ slogan from Indigenous peoples and had been sailing for a week, having started 3,000 kilometres inland in Sinop, Mato Grosso.
On one side, the boat had a Brazilian flag. On the front, a banner that read ‘o agro não enche prato’ (agribusiness doesn’t fill your plate), denouncing that agribusiness in their land focuses on export production, without supplying for local communities.
The main banner on the inside was protesting the Ferrogrão, a railway that would connect Sinop to Belém’s state of Pará, and that has been halted since 2021 due to its possible environmental impacts.
Inside the boat, on the first floor, there was music, dancing, and traditional Indigenous food for sale by a group that raises money for rural working women in the Amazon. The top floors were full of hammocks reserved for the people who did the trip from Sinop.
The flotilla sailed for about an hour and then stopped at Vila da Barca, an indigenous community on stilts along the banks of the Guajará Bay that received sewage and debris from one of the COP30 construction projects.
After returning to the port, the event ended with a press conference led by Chief Raoni Metuktire, an Indigenous leader who was recently awarded the highest decoration of Brazilian diplomacy by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his decades of climate activism.
He started his participation by saying, “I’ve been telling you for a long time that we shouldn’t have these bad problems,” referring to the droughts in the Amazon (last year’s was the worst in 45 years, according to government data) and the heatwaves affecting the rainforest, which have made its lakes reach temperatures over 41 degrees, according to one recent study.
Raoni also talked about the recent licenses Lula gave to Petrobras to explore oil off the Amazon coast, saying that projects like that could cause severe problems for the world, “first us, the Indigenous Peoples, but also all of you, all of us will have environmental problems.”
This demonstration happened one day after protesters clashed with security guards as they attempted to force their way into the COP30 conference centre. When asked about that, Indigenous people said that they didn’t organise it, but weren’t necessarily against it.
The Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB) said in a statement that while they did not coordinate that activity, they reiterate their support for the right to protest and their demand for Indigenous Peoples to be part of the COP30 negotiations.
Protesters break into summit venue, clashing with security
About 9pm on Tuesday night, a group of protesters clashed with security guards as they attempted to force their way into the COP30 conference centre – making headlines and news bulletins around the world.
Videos captured dozens of mostly Indigenous demonstrators pushing through the main entrance, rushing past metal detectors, and demanding entry to the area where climate negotiators were meeting.
As UN security guards scrambled to stop them, scuffles broke out before the protesters were forcibly removed. A UN climate spokesperson said two security guards suffered minor injuries, and there was minor damage to the venue. One guard with a small cut told Reuters he was hit by a thrown drumstick.
Some of the protesters carried signs saying “our forest is not for sale” or demanding a halt to oil drilling in the Amazon rainforest.
“We can’t eat money,” Nato, an Indigenous leader from the Tupinamba community, told Reuters. “We want our lands free from agribusiness, oil exploration, illegal miners and illegal loggers.”
Brazil, the host nation of COP30, has underlined the importance of ensuring Indigenous communities have a voice in this year’s climate negotiations and there has been a record turnout of Indigenous groups in the city of Belém.
But, according to InfoAmazonia, Indigenous people are frustrated that more did not receive accreditation for the COP30 venue. Their analysis suggests 360 received accreditation. The Brazilian government says that’s more than any previous COP. But it’s only a small fraction of the 56,000 people registered to attend this year’s UN climate talks.
Lucas Tupinambá, a young leader from the Tapajós-Arapiuns Indigenous council, attended Tuesday’s plenary session after travelling for two days by boat to reach Belém. In his speech, he denounced the presence of dredgers extracting minerals in his region, but he told InfoAmazonia that “they are not interested in hearing from those who truly need to be heard”.
The Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB), the country’s leading Indigenous organisation, wants a strong outcome from COP30 on land demarcation to legally protect their land rights, which are threatened by loggers, agribusinesses and miners.
“Our core message is that demarcation and territorial protection are policies for facing the climate emergency. This needs not just to be acknowledged, but also implemented by global leaders—and in our case, above all, by Brazil,” Kleber Karipuna, APIB’s executive coordinator, told InfoAmazonia.
Could vote break COP31 deadlock?
While we found out yesterday where COP32 will be – Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa – we still don’t know whether next year’s COP31 talks will be in Australia’s Adelaide or Turkiye’s Antalya.
Such decisions have always been made by consensus within the relevant regional group – in this case, the geographically diverse Western Europe and Others group. But, with both Turkiye and Australia refusing to backdown, consensus has yet to be reached.
Joanna Depledge, a COP historian and research fellow at the University of Cambridge, told Climate Home News that it may be possible to break this deadlock through a vote of all countries at this COP – or at least the threat of one.
She noted that, while the UN’s climate convention (UNFCCC) lacks a formal voting rule for taking substantive decisions, the rules of procedure applied at each COP since 1996 (including COP30) appear to allow for majority secret ballot voting for the election of officers – including COP Presidents.
She added this is because the rules for elections (rules 51 and 52 specifically) are set out in a separate part to the disputed rule on substantive issues (rule 42).
“These rules have never been tested, but even raising the possibility of a COP vote could focus minds,” Depledge said. She noted that – although the rules are slightly different under the Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) – a dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over who should host the CBD COP next year was resolved in Armenia’s favour with a majority vote.
