China’s new emissions reduction target, announced at a high-level climate summit at the United Nations in New York, has been judged by experts as “timid” and falling short of the effort needed to meet global climate goals, even though it represents an increase in the country’s climate ambition.
The Asian economic powerhouse promised to aim for a 7-10% cut in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to “peak” levels, without specifying which year that would be. Analysts said that pledge – China’s first goal to cut its absolute emissions – is not enough to align with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5C.
In a video message to the summit, China’s President Xi Jinping told world leaders that the “green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time”, despite “some countries acting against it”.
“China will by 2035 reduce economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels, striving to do better,” the Chinese leader announced at the Climate Summit 2025 convened by the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York.
The world’s largest carbon polluter, China is responsible for about a third of global emissions. As countries delivered new climate plans at the summit, China’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC) has been one of the most anticipated and is viewed an indicator of global climate ambition.
Target falls short of Paris Agreement alignment
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the China Climate Hub estimate that only emissions cuts of 30% or more by 2035 would make China’s plans consistent with the 1.5C limit.
A range, such as the one delivered by Xi at the New York summit, could be interpreted as “the lower bound is effectively the guarantee, while the upper bound represents potential ambition”, CREA said.
Commenting on the new NDC, China Climate Hub directors Kate Logan and Li Shuo said the 2035 target “would likely put the world on a pathway of 3C warming by 2100 and catastrophic climate impacts”.
The baseline year for the target – a key measure for how ambitious it is – was not clarified in Xi’s announcement. The country will take as reference the “peak” in its emissions, with some experts saying that could have occurred as early as last year or this year.
China’s rapid renewable energy rollout has kept the country on track to meet its existing goal of peaking carbon pollution before the end of the decade. It plans to reach net zero by 2060.
The Chinese president also announced a target to “increase the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%”, and “expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over six times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 GW”. Analysts noted that at the current rate of addition, this target for renewables capacity could be achieved as early as 2030.
In addition, Xi pledged to make EVs the “mainstream in the sale of new vehicles”, expand its emissions trading market to cover “major emitting sectors” and “scale up the total forest stock volume to over 24 billion cubic metres”.
The inclusion in China’s target of emission removals from the land and forestry sector makes it “less transparent”, warned Climate Action Tracker, a group that scientifically assesses countries’ climate plans.
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Since 2020, China has also pledged to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of GDP – a measure known as carbon intensity – by more than 65% below 2005 levels by 2030. This target was not mentioned in Xi’s announcement, nor were specific 2035 targets for any non-carbon gases, especially methane.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said China’s new target “shows this acceleration of climate action, [clean energy] manufacturing and deployment will continue, and increase”, and added that the scale of expected investments is “unprecedented”.
Dave Jones, chief analyst with energy think-tank Ember, said the new NDC underscored the progress made by China over the last few years with its energy transition, showing that “a sustained decline in its fossil fuel use is now well within sight” and China would continue to install solar and wind “at mega-scale”.
Emissions target “too timid”
Other observers said China’s new mitigation target for 2035 fell short of what the country can deliver, arguing it is not representative of the country’s climate actions on the ground.
Beijing’s existing policies put it on track to achieve the new target, which is therefore unlikely to further drive down emissions, according to analysis by Climate Action Tracker. “This is disappointing as China has the opportunity to decarbonise faster,” Norah Zhang, the organisation’s China lead, said.
Yao Zhe, Beijing-based global policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia, said that “even for those with tempered expectations, what’s presented today still falls short. This 2035 target offers little assurance to keep our planet safe.”
Still, Zhe added that China is expected to exceed its target on paper, in line with its tradition for under-promising and over-delivering. “Ultimately, actions do speak louder than words. But strong and consistent policy signals are an irreplaceable catalyst,” she said.
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Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia and chair of The Elders group, said China’s new target “is too timid given the country’s extraordinary record on clean energy – both at home and through its green partnerships with emerging economies”.
In the past, the country delivered on its target to install 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar energy ahead of the government’s schedule.
Bernice Lee, distinguished fellow at Chatham House, said the new target “simply isn’t representative of the pace of the energy transition in the country” adding that other countries will “read the writing on the wall” and recognise China’s climate commitment to clean energy outside of its NDC.
CREA and China Climate Hub analysts noted that by saying it was “striving to do better”, China is sending a signal that it could revise its on-paper commitment upwards based on actual progress in the real economy.
“I am quite confident that there will be an upgrade to this NDC in a couple of years, and hopefully that will be another reason for Xi Jinping to put something forward that gives us a bit more hope,” Belinda Schäpe, China policy analyst with CREA, told journalists.
China’s climate leadership “critical”
Experts have said that strong leadership from China and the European Union is critical ahead of the COP30 climate summit, as the Trump administration has pulled back from the US’s international climate commitments.
The EU’s climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said on Thursday that China’s climate plan “falls well short” of what is necessary and makes it “more challenging” to reach global climate goals. The EU has yet to agree on its updated NDC amid divisions among its member states, but it signalled its 2035 emission-cutting target would “range between 66% and 72%” below 1990 levels.
In a major milestone this year, China’s emissions fell for the first time in the 12 months to May, despite continued growth in energy demand. Previous declines in emissions had only taken place during the COVID-19 pandemic, when strong social restrictions slowed down economic growth.
The country’s much-criticised coal sector has kept growing to power its energy-hungry industry. Still, as transport, buildings and industry electrify fast, China’s energy-related fossil fuel consumption is expected to fall soon, according to Ember.
Given the country’s massive energy footprint, this would create the conditions for a global decline in fossil fuel demand, it argues.
“We know China has a long and impressive record of meeting and surpassing its targets for climate change and clean energy,” UN climate chief Stiell said. “So, today’s news is a clear signal that the future global economy will run on clean energy.”
This story was updated to include remarks by Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN convention on climate change, EU Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra as well as China climate policy analysts.
