Enforced Disappearances and Crackdown on Opposition Darken Outlook for Tanzania’s Elections

On 6 October, Tanzania’s former ambassador to Cuba, Humphrey Polepole, became the latest victim in a spate of abductions that is stoking public resentment against President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Polepole was a respected stalwart of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party until he resigned from his post in Havana in July, voicing dismay at the trajectory of Tanzania’s leadership in a letter published on social media. He later spoke publicly to accuse the party of placing individual interests ahead of “institutional integrity”. His abduction adds to the growing list of similar cases targeting mostly opposition activists and government critics as the country approaches general elections on 29 October.

Since being taken from his house in Dar es Salaam, Polepole’s whereabouts are unknown. His disappearance – as well as subsequent media speculation about his fate – darkens an already fraught political climate. The upcoming polls are the first time Suluhu has faced the electorate since becoming president in 2021, following the death of her predecessor John Magufuli. Although she initially positioned herself as a reformer, she has since built a reputation for cronyism, frequently removing experienced officials in favour of loyalists. 

Suluhu has also overseen an unprecedented crackdown on political opponents. The main opposition party Chadema is struggling to get a court-ordered ban on its activities lifted, while its leader Tundu Lissu is on trial on charges of treason after campaigning for electoral reform. The candidate of the second-biggest opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, has also been barred from running, removing any credible challenges to the CCM’s political dominance. The government has curbed freedom of expression, ranging from a ban on X and restrictions on the Tanzanian digital platform JamiiForums to silencing critical voices through intimidation or arrest. Police are even conducting so-called online patrols. With most opponents muzzled, Samia and the CCM appear set to secure a landslide victory in a largely ceremonial process.

Suluhu and her allies have also moved to suppress potential threats from within the CCM, which has never lost an election since Tanzania introduced multi-party politics in 1992. In January, she secured her nomination as presidential candidate through a process that bypassed party conventions. In July and August, the party leadership selected parliamentary candidates in a tightly controlled process that  excluded dozens of senior members loyal to party heavyweights other than the president. 

UN experts, meanwhile, urged the government in June to stop the enforced disappearances, which have intensified since mid-2024. Though security agencies are often believed to be behind the abductions, responsibility is rarely established. 

Concerns are now growing over the potential for unrest during or after the polls at the end of this month. The crackdown on the opposition and brazen abductions of figures like Polepole have compounded already widespread frustration over high food prices. Although the security services keep a tight grip on public discourse, many Tanzanians are deeply disappointed with their leadership’s authoritarian turn, and all too aware of the political changes set in motion by recent mass protests in Kenya, Mozambique and Madagascar.